NFL Marketwatch Week 7 2010-11

10/22/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is published every Saturday morning. Readers can signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Friday mornings. Signup to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch

Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try’s Premium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most advanced betting information, including real time odds and betting trends data from six (6) online sportsbooks.

SportsInsights takes an academic view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in our popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books and our recent article comparing the sports marketplace to the financial markets.

ESPN’s Chad Millman Teams with Sports Insights

ESPN sports betting columnist Chad Millman has teamed with Sports Insights to analyze line movement in the NFL sports marketplace. Check out this week’s column where Millman and Sports Insights’ President, Dan Fabrizio, break down line movement for five Week 7 NFL matchups.

Click here to read Chad Millman’s Blog.

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 7                                      

Recapping Last Week

Overall Regular Season (10-5-1 = 66.7%) 

Last weekend had relatively few games that were lopsided-bet, with just five games having over 65% of the bets on one team.  One of those games (Indy) ended in a push, and the other four games were split 2-2.  This left the Public at a still, sub-par, 18-26 = 40.9% for the season.

Overall, it was also a good weekend for Betting Against the Public in the NFL, with both SportsInsights Square Plays and Marketwatch having a positive weekend.  The NFL Marketwatch continued its winning ways, winning with its selection of the St. Louis Rams over the San Diego Chargers, with the Rams winning the game outright.  Check out the Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.

SportsInsights stresses that sports investors should research a profitable strategy and then stick with their approach.  After a hot streak, we want to emphasize that bettors shouldstay the course and bet the same amounts.  View Last Week’s Column

What’s the Best Sportsbook to Bet Against the Public?
I get this question all the time from readers. If you’re planning on “Betting Against the Public” this football season, BetUS is a must-have sportsbook. They consistently offer the best underdog lines and the most generous depositing bonuses. You’ll get an extra 0.5 point to 1.0 point every time you make a bet.  Visit BetUS today, it’s where I bet!

NFL Week 7 Sports Marketwatch – Game of the Week takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

This matchup remains the heaviest-bet game of the week.  The game is generating a lot of betting interest as it pits one of the NFL’s elite teams (Baltimore) against one of the worst (the lowly Buffalo Bills).  This season, the Ravens have already beaten several of the league’s best teams — including the Jets and Steelers.  The Ravens lost a tough overtime game to the Patriots last week, but this showed many sports fans that the Ravens are, indeed, one of the NFL’s elite teams this year.

On the other hand, the Buffalo Bills are one of just two remaining winless teams in the NFL this year.  What do the NFL marketplace indicators say?  With this game currently being the heaviest-bet game of the week, more than 80% of the bettors are putting their hard-earned money on the Ravens, even with the big point spread.  CRIS opened the line at Baltimore -13.5, but even with the heavy action on Baltimore, the line is generally available at Baltimore -13.  This “reverse line movement” is an indication of “sharp money” on the Buffalo Bills.  

Our readers know that we like to “bet against the Public” — and especially like to follow the coattails of the “sharps.”  We sometimes need bad teams to do good things — and this is one of those weeks.  We also like the big 13 or 14 points on Buffalo, when Baltimore has averaged just 18.7 points per game (21st best in the NFL), and has a net margin of just +17 points (Points For minus Points Against) in six games (with their 4-2 record, although versus the likes of the Steelers, Pats, and Jets).

Finally, we like the fact that Buffalo had a bye-week last week — giving them extra time to prepare for this game.  If you shop around, you can grab the Bills +14.

Buffalo Bills +14 (Bet at Bodog +14)  

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep your eye on the NFL Marketwatch game of the week and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time odds,betting trends, and winning betting systems picks.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.  Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio