NFL Marketwatch Week 6 2010-11

10/15/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is published every Saturday morning. Readers can signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Friday mornings.  Signup to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch 

Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try’sPremium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most advanced betting information, including real time odds and betting trends data from six (6) online sportsbooks.

SportsInsights takes an academic view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in our popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books and our recent article comparing the sports marketplace to the financial markets.

Changes to Marketwatch

Our NCAA Football and NFL Editions of Sports Marketwatch have been reduced to one game per week. Over the summer, Sports Insights refined our Best Bet criteria to fit more into our Betting Against the Public philosophy. As a result, a significant percentage of Marketwatch’s Games to Watch are now included in our Best Bet or Square Play Betting Systems.

These changes helped MLB Best Bets finish the regular season +29.42 units, while NCAA Football and NFL Best Bets are +8.15 units, combined, so far this season. Betting Against the Public has been a very profitable strategy so far during the 2010 football seasons as NCAA Football and NFL Square Plays are +16.14 units, combined. For those interested in receiving our Betting Systems plays, we are currently offering a 30-day, moneyback guarantee on our Premium and Premium Pro memberships .

NFL Marketwatch  – NFL Week 6                                       

Recapping Last Week

Overall Regular Season (9-5-1 = 64.3%) 

This past weekend is what the sportsbooks live for.  In general, sportsbooks are happy to collect the “-110 vig” on sports betting.  They also lean the lines a bit to take advantage of human nature — and the desire of the general public to bet on winners.  Most weekends, the sportsbooks collect their vig and pad their profit margins by leaning their lines.  This past week, however, the sportsbooks feasted on the public.  The public went a lowly 1-5 in games with over 65% of the bets on one team.  All of these lopsided-bet games had the public on favorites.  For the season, this makes the Public a dismal 16-24 = 40.0%.

NFL Week 5 was about as good as it can get for the sportsbooks.  Overall, it was also a good weekend for Betting Against the Public in the NFL, with both SportsInsights Square Plays andMarketwatch having a positive weekend.  The NFL Marketwatch swept the board (3-0) for a second week in a row.  Check out the Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.

Earlier in the season, after a slow start, we said that sports investors should stick with their approach.  After a hot streak, we want to emphasize that bettors should stay the course and bet the same amounts.  Our motto is to find a real edge — and stick with the plan and strategy.  View Last Week’s Column

What’s the Best Sportsbook to Bet Against the Public? 
I get this question all the time from reader. If you’re planning on “Betting Against the Public” this football season, BetUS is a must-have sportsbook. They consistently offer the best underdog lines and the most generous depositing bonuses. You’ll get an extra 0.5 point to 1.0 point every time you make a bet. Visit BetUS today , it’s where I bet!

NFL Week 6 Sports Marketwatch – Game of the Week takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

St. Louis Rams vs. San Diego Chargers

This week’s NFL sports marketplace selection is interesting.  Sometimes we pick very lopsided games that are also heavily-bet.  Other times, we see clear indications of “sharp money” getting down on a “live dog.”  This week, we’ll rely on one of our offshore contacts, who circled this game because of “line value” that the general public is creating — based on what he called “public perceptions and reputations that stick.”

The public “knows” that San Diego is one of the elite teams in the NFL.  The public also “knows” that the Rams are one of the worst teams in the league.  Last year, the Chargers were a 13-3 playoff team, while the Rams had the NFL’s worst record at 1-15.  This year, the Chargers again boast a prolific offense (#1 in the NFL in offensive yards, #2 in points), led by Philip Rivers.  However, the Charger defense has been a bit suspect this season, in losing two games out of the past three week, losing 35-27 to Oakland, and 27-20 to Seattle.

Both the Chargers and Rams have sub-par 2-3 records this season.  The Rams have already beaten their win total from last season!  However, a large majority of bets are taking the visiting Chargers, even with a hefty point spread.  At the time of this article, about 67% of the bets (including teasers and parlays) are taking the Chargers, which has pushed the line up from its opening line of San Diego -7 up to -8.5.  Some sportsbooks have started to edge the line up to St. Louis +9.  This is some decent line value off of the key number of 7.  Take the big points on a home underdog (St. Louis Rams) that is showing some life.

St. Louis Rams +9 (Bet at SIA +9 -120)   

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time oddsbetting trends, and winning betting systemspicks.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.  Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio