NFL Marketwatch Week 4 2010-11

10/1/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is published every Saturday morning. Readers can signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Friday mornings. Signup to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch

Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try’s Premium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most advanced betting information, including real time odds and betting trends data from six (6) online sportsbooks.

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 4                                      

Recapping Last Week

Overall Regular Season (3-5-1 = 37.5%)

NFL Week 3 was a generally good weekend for the sportsbooks and a good day for Betting Against the Public in the NFL.’s betting trends analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the bets on one team, the Public went 4-5. For the season, that makes the Public 12-17 = 41.4%. Check out the Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on a featured game of the day.

Our Games to Watch stumbled last week, going 1-2 against the spread.  We’re under water right now, but this highlights the ups and downs of any investment.  Interestingly, the Public has been underperforming, so we would normally be doing well (since we typically fade the Public).  We’ve had our share of bad bounces — but look to bounce back shortly.  Over the years, our methods of seeking out and capturing value in the sports investing arena have been documented both via this Sports Marketwatch newsletter, and the published plays at  We’ll stick with our approach and “catch the wind at our backs” over the long-term.  Our motto is to find a real edge — and stick with the plan and strategy.  It’s about patience and believing in your research. View Last Week’s Column

What’s the Best Sportsbook to Bet Against the Public?
I get this question all the time from readers. If you’re planning on “Betting Against the Public” this football season, BetUS is a must-have sportsbook. They consistently offer the best underdog lines and the most generous depositing bonuses. You’ll get an extra 0.5 point to 1.0 point every time you make a bet.  Visit BetUS today, it’s where I bet!

NFL Week 4 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

The old phrase used to be, “When E.F. Hutton talks, people listen.”  Similarly, when a risk manager at one of the larger offshore sportsbooks calls us, we listen.  This contact, an old friend, let us know that “Carolina-New Orleans was getting some heavy action” — from both the public and some “early sharps.”  Indeed, SportsInsights’ marketplace statistics show this game to be the heaviest-bet game of the week, at the time of this writing.

With heavy betting action coming down on this game, almost 75% of the bets are taking the heavily-favored Saints (when you include teasers and parlays).  The public is still riding the coattails of the Super Bowl Champion Saints — even after their tough overtime loss to the Atlanta Falcons last week.  On the other hand, the “sharps” may be noticing that the Saints are not the dominating team they were just a year ago.  The 2-1 Saints have barely outscored their opponents this year.

The “contrarian” in us notes that the Carolina Panthers are currently one of the league’s doormats, at 0-3 — and managed just 7 points last week.  The line opened at Carolina +14, but even with the heavy betting on New Orleans, the line has ticked down to Carolina +13.5.  That reverse line movement means that “sharps” are on the heavy dogs as well.  Our readers know that we often need bad teams to show just a little bit more than they have been showing — and this selection is a prime example.

Note that Drew Brees is currently listed as “probable” for the game.  You can still find +14 points at a few books.  Take the huge 14 points and a potentially live dog in a tough NFC South Divisional match-up.

Carolina Panthers +14 (Bet at Bodog +14) 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

These teams are seemingly going in opposite directions.  Indianapolis has won two games in a row while Jacksonville has lost two games in a row.  Peyton Manning has already passed for over 1000 yards, 9 TDs, and 0 (zero!) INTs in three games, winning the last two in blowout fashion.  The Jaguars’ play on the field doesn’t give its fans much hope, with two blowout losses in a row.  However, this kind of mismatch is what often leads to value in the sports investing marketplace.

The visiting Colts opened at “just” +7 points, causing most bettors — more than 80% of the bets, including teasers and parlays — to take the hot Indianapolis Colts.  However, we want to “bet against the public” and take the home underdogs.  The Jaguars were competitive last year, winning 7 games while losing 9.  We like grabbing live home dogs in a divisional rivalry matchup, like this AFC South game.  Let’s “sell” the Colts and Peyton Manning during this hot streak, and “buy” the Jaguars at a low after their two blowout losses.

The steady pounding of bets on the Colts has also added some “line value” for a play on Jacksonville.  The line opened at Jacksonville +7, and has crept up to +8 at several sportsbooks, a nice move off of the key “seven” number.  

Jacksonville Jaguars +8  (Bet at Bodog +8)

San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons

We circled this game, and San Francisco in particular, because of “reverse line movement.”  The line opened at Atlanta -7, but even with SportsInsights’ betting percentages showing 75% of all bets getting down on Atlanta, the line has started to move down to Atlanta -6.5.  This kind of reverse line movement means that some “big, smart, money” is getting down on the underdog 49ers.

Atlanta had a huge win over the Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints last week, and this helps us “sports investors” gain some value.  The Falcons have played solid football this year, losing just once, to a strong Pittsburgh Steelers squad in Week 1.  The Falcons’ resume this season includes a blowout win over Arizona.  On the other hand, the San Francisco 49ers seem to be spiraling in the opposite direction, starting the 2010 season 0-3.  Still, does Atlanta’s play warrant the Falcons being a 7-point favorite over the 49ers?

The “smart money” thinks that the 49ers, plus the points, are a good value.  We note that San Francisco played some good football last year, going 8-8 while outscoring their opponents by a solid 50+ points.  We’ll follow the sharps and grab the 49ers plus the points.  There are still lots of +7’s around, and even a 49ers +7.5 if you shop around.

San Francisco 49ers +7   

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch.

Games to Watch (3-5-1 = 37.5%)

Carolina Panthers +14
Jacksonville Jaguars +8
San Francisco 49ers +7  

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time oddsbetting trends, and winning betting systems picks.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.  Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio