NFL Marketwatch Week 20 2010-11 (Conference Championships)

1/21/2011 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is normally published every Saturday morning. Readers can sign-up to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Friday mornings. Sign-up to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch

Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try’s Premium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most advanced betting information, including real time odds and betting trends data from six (6) online sportsbooks.

SportsInsights takes an academic and contrarian view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in this article recently published in the Wall Street Journal, entitled, “A Contrarian’s Guide to Football Betting.  SportsInsights is a leader in the sports information industry and has published a popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books as well as recent articles on:  comparing the Sports Marketplace to the Financial Markets and Contrarian Sports Investing: Why It Works.

NFL Marketwatch

Recapping the 2010 Regular Season

Overall 2010-11 NFL Playoffs (2-0)

Overall 2010 Regular Season (14-12-1 = 53.8%) 

SportsInsights’ NFL Marketwatch ended with a positive record of 53.8% for the 2010-11 NFL regular season.  This brings the six-year record of the NFL Marketwatch to a solid 56.5% record, as shown below.  Our record has been profitable every season except for last season, when Marketwatch was 52.1%, just below the magical number of 52.4% needed to beat the -110 vig.

NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance

Year Record Win Percentage
NFL 2010-11 14-12 53.8%
NFL 2009-10 25-23 52.1%
NFL 2008-09 26-22 54.2%
NFL 2007-08 26-19 57.8%
NFL 2006-07 31-18 63.3%
NFL 2005-06 31-24 56.4%
TOTAL 153-118 56.5%

Special Thanks

I would like to thank the line managers at our contributing sportsbooks for taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and minds.  It has been an education for myself, the team at SportsInsights — and hopefully our readers.  I would also like to thank the loyal readers of the NFL Marketwatch.  Your encouragement and support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope that the NFL Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of contrarian value in the sports marketplace.

Recap of Betting Against the Public and 2010-11 NFL Regular Season

After a dismal start to the year, the Public moved towards respectability with a few winning weeks near the end of the season.  The Public finished with a record of 63-64 = 49.6% in lopsided-bet games for the 2010 NFL season.  This, combined with the “vig” that the sportsbooks collect — made it a still-profitable, “but not great” season for the sportsbooks on NFL sides.

SportsInsights’ contrarian method of Betting Against the Public methods in the NFL, including Square PlaysBest Bets, and MarketWatch had a solid season, with Square Plays and NFL MarketWatch producing a combined winning percentage of just under 55%.  NFL Squares ended the regular season at 57%.  Check out the Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.

View Last Week’s Column

NFL Marketwatch – Conference Championships – Game of the Week

The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets.  The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most-wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone — and their mother — wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Super Bowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Super Bowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They will shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines. takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

Green Bay pounded the Atlanta Falcons last week — while the Bears beat a mediocre Seahawks squad.  So who do we like?  The Bears, of course!  As we mentioned last week —sports fans often focus on the very short-term — especially in the playoffs.  The Bears are only receiving 32% of the bets, even though they beat the Packers out for the NFC North title — with a better record.  The Bears are at home and receiving more than a field goal’s worth of points.  We like the live home dog — and the idea of “selling” the Packers at this “high.” 

The line opened at Bears +3, but the constant betting on the hot Green Bay Packers has moved the line to Bears +3.5.  Some public books have started to move the line to Bears +4.  This is some solid line value right at the key number of 3.  

The Bears earned home field advantage, but the fans are betting as if Green Bay is a far superior team.  Chicago did “just okay” at home this year, going 5-3 — but Green Bay was just 3-5 on the road.  Several factors point to the Bears, as a “live” home dog.  We’ll “bet against the Public” and grab the line value.

Remember to shop around for the best line.  Bodog currently has the the Bears at +4.

Chicago Bears +4 (Bet at Bodog +4)

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep your eye on the NFL Marketwatch game of the week and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time odds,betting trends, and winning betting systems picks.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.  Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio