NFL Marketwatch Week 2 2010-11

9/17/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is published every Saturday morning. Readers can signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Friday afternoons. Signup to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch

Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try’s Premium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most advanced betting information, including real time odds and betting trends data from six (6) online sportsbooks.

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 2                                      

Recapping Last Week

Overall Regular Season (1-2 = 33%)

NFL Week 1 went the way of the Square Better (bettors who bet primarily favorites) with favorites going 6-5. Our Games to Watch stumbled in its opening weekend, posting a losing 1-2 record. But always remember that one weekend doesn’t make or break a season. Consistent winning means winning over an entire season. Anyone can go 5-0, but very few professional sports bettors can achieve a winning percentage above 55% for an entire season. Readers from previous years will note that we started off previous seasons slowly, going 1-2 in Week 1 and Week 2. We ended the NFL Regular season with a 26-22 (= 54.2%) record. It’s about patience and believing in your research. View Last Week’s Column

Check Out the SportsInsights Blog

Visit our new sports information blog for free daily updates including Betting Trends Reports, Opening Lines Reports, and a featured game of the day. Your bankroll will thank you!

NFL Week 2 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons

As our readers know, we study the “market action” within the sports marketplace to give us a clue about what specific bettors (such as square bettors and sharps) are doing in the betting markets.  In particular, we use SportsInsights’ proprietary “betting percentages” as well as point spread line movement.  We typically like to “bet against the public” and “follow the smart money.”  The Arizona-Atlanta match-up has several indicators that point to Arizona as a contrarian value play.

First, the public is overwhelmingly on Atlanta, with about three out of every four bets coming in on the favored Falcons, when you include teasers and parlays.  Even though most bets are coming in on Atlanta, the point spread has actually moved in the opposite direction.  The line opened at Atlanta -7, but has ticked down to Atlanta -6.5 at most sportsbooks.  This “reverse line movement” is an excellent indication that “big, smart money” has come in on Arizona, overwhelming the smaller, public bets.

SportsInsights’ Smart Money analytical tools also flagged smart money plays coming in on Arizona, based on its analysis of indicators at individual sportsbooks.  In particular, the Phoenix (7-1) and Olympic (7-4) sportsbooks flashed smart money plays for Arizona.

You can still get +7 at several sportsbooks, so grab the key number while you can.

Arizona Cardinals +7 -120  (Bet at Sports Interaction +7 -120)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans

The public is overwhelmingly on Tennessee after their impressive win over Oakland.  However, we note that even with 70% of the bets landing on Tennessee, the point spread has ticked down from Tennessee -6 at Pinnacle, all the way down to Tennessee -5.  There is a lot of smart money coming in on Pittsburgh.

Tennessee had one of the biggest blowout wins in the NFL’s opening weekend, while Pittsburgh squeezed out an overtime win — at home (!!) — against Atlanta.  Pittsburgh has been in the news a lot due to big Ben’s suspension.  This kind of media attention (positive for Tennessee and negative for the Steelers) can exaggerate the point spread in big match-ups.  How often can you get the Steelers, plus this many points?  We like the fact that you can still get +5.5 at ABC, Jazz, and several other sportsbooks.

Pittsburg Steelers +5.5 -110 (Bet at ABC Islands +5.5 -110

Houston Texans vs Washington Redskins

Houston’s big win over Indy last week has impressed many bettors.  The public is on the visiting Texans in a big way, with almost three out of every four bets coming in on the Texans.  Let’s “bet against the public” and take a solid Washington Redskin squad at home, plus the three points, a good key number. 

There are lots of value indicators found on that point to Washington +3.  Let’s sell the Texans at a “high” after their big win — and take the Redskins, plus the points.  There are lots of +3 available; make sure you grab that key number.

Washington Redskins +3 -115  (Bet at Sports Interaction +3 -115

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch.

Games to Watch (1-2)
Arizona Cardinals +7 -120
Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 -110
Washington +3 -115

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time oddsbetting trends, and winning betting systems picks.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.  Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio