NFL Marketwatch Week 18 2010-11 (Wildcard Weekend)

1/7/2011 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is normally published every Saturday morning. Readers can sign-up to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Friday mornings.  Sign-up to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch 

Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try’sPremium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most advanced betting information, including real time odds and betting trends data from six (6) online sportsbooks.

SportsInsights takes an academic and contrarian view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in this article recently published in the Wall Street Journal, entitled, “A Contrarian’s Guide to Football Betting.   SportsInsights is a leader in the sports information industry and has published a popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books as well as recent articles on:  comparing the Sports Marketplace to the Financial Markets and Contrarian Sports Investing: Why It Works.

NFL Marketwatch

Recapping the 2010 Regular Season

Overall 2010 Regular Season (14-12-1 = 53.8%) 

SportsInsights’ NFL Marketwatch ended with a positive record of 53.8% for the 2010-11 NFL regular season.  This brings the six-year record of the NFL Marketwatch to a solid 56.5% record, as shown below.  Our record has been profitable every season except for last season, whenMarketwatch was 52.1%, just below the magical number of 52.4% needed to beat the -110 vig.

NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance

Year Record Win Percentage
NFL 2010-11 14-12 53.8%
NFL 2009-10 25-23 52.1%
NFL 2008-09 26-22 54.2%
NFL 2007-08 26-19 57.8%
NFL 2006-07 31-18 63.3%
NFL 2005-06 31-24 56.4%
TOTAL 153-118 56.5%

Special Thanks

I would like to thank the line managers at our contributing sportsbooks for taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and minds.  It has been an education for myself, the team at SportsInsights — and hopefully our readers.  I would also like to thank the loyal readers of the NFL Marketwatch.   Your encouragement and support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope that the NFL Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of contrarian value in the sports marketplace.

Recap of Betting Against the Public and 2010-11 NFL Regular Season

After a dismal start to the year, the Public moved towards respectability with a few winning weeks near the end of the season.  Last week, the Public went 5-3 in “lopsided-bet games,” which are defined as games having 65% or more bets on one team.  The Public beat the spread with teams like Pittsburgh, New England, Atlanta, and the Jets — while Indianapolis and St. Louis surprised some bettors by failing to cover.  The Public’s 5-3 week brings the Public’s record to 63-64 = 49.6% in lopsided-bet games for the 2010 NFL season.  This, combined with the “vig” that the sportsbooks collect — made it a still-profitable, “but not great” season for the sportsbooks on NFL sides.

SportsInsights’ contrarian methods, including NFL Squares, Best Bets, and Marketwatch went 4-4in total.  SportsInsights’ Betting Against the Public methods in the NFL, including Square PlaysBest Bets, and MarketWatch are having a solid season, with Square Plays and NFL MarketWatchproducing a combined winning percentage of just under 55%.  NFL Squares ended the regular season at 57%.  Check out the Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.

View Last Week’s Column

NFL Playoff Week 1 NFL Marketwatch – Game of the Week

The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets.  The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most-wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone — and their mother — wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Super Bowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Super Bowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They will shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines. takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts

One of our favorite offshore friends had this game circled.  Although this match-up is not the most lopsided-bet game of the week, some early sharps had our risk manager contact eyeing the game.  The game opened with the Jets as +3 visiting underdogs.  However, some early “smart money” on the Jets pushed the line down to Jets +2.5.  The betting percentages have been fairly steady, with early betting about 60% on the Colts.  Even with the majority of bets on the Colts, the line has edged down to Jets +2.5.

We’ll “bet against the Public” and tail the “smart money.”  In addition, SportsInsights annual NFL power ratings favor the Jets over the Colts.  Let’s see what else we can dig up on this match-up.

  • Many sports fans and bettors still love Peyton Manning and remember the Colts’ Super Bowl appearance last year.   The Colts had a great season last year — and won the Super Bowl just a few years ago.  This kind of attention can lead to a team being over-valued.
  • On the other hand, the Jets limped into the playoffs , winning just 2 of their last 5 games — and getting demolished by the Patriots just a few weeks ago.
  • This combination of “buying the Jets at a low” and “selling the Colts on media and sports fan attention” — in addition to the sports betting indicators — makes us feel that the Jets are a good value .
  • The Jets had a nice playoff run last year, and Mark Sanchez has gained an additional year of NFL experience.
  • Peyton Manning had an up and down season, ending with solid 91.9 QB rating — but it is notable that this is Manning’s lowest QB rating since 2002.

Remember to shop around for the best line.  Bodog has the key number of +3, and the extra vig is worth it on this key number.

New York Jets +3 (Bet at Bodog +3) 

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep your eye on the NFL Marketwatch game of the week and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time oddsbetting trends, and winning betting systems picks.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.  Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio