NFL Marketwatch Week 17 2010-11

12/31/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is published every Saturday morning. Readers can sign-up to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Friday mornings.  Sign-up to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch 

Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try’sPremium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most advanced betting information, including real time odds and betting trends data from six (6) online sportsbooks.

SportsInsights takes an academic and contrarian view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in this article recently published in the Wall Street Journal, entitled, “A Contrarian’s Guide to Football Betting.   SportsInsights is a leader in the sports information industry and has published a popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books as well as recent articles on:  comparing the Sports Marketplace to the Financial Markets and Contrarian Sports Investing: Why It Works.

NFL Marketwatch  – NFL Week 17

Recapping Last Week

Overall Regular Season (14-11-1 = 56.0%) 

Last week had many lopsided-bet games, and luckily for the Public — the “Public teams” came out on top.  The Public went 6-4 in “lopsided-bet games,” which are defined as games having 65% or more bets on one team.  The Public rode the coattails of teams like Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England and Indianapolis to wins ATS last week — while San Diego, Philadelphia and Dallas disappointed.  The Public’s 6-4 week brings the Public’s record to 58-61 = 48.7% in lopsided-bet games this season.  This lopsided-bet “trend” has historically been an edge for contrarian sports investors.

SportsInsights’ contrarian methods, including NFL Squares, Best Bets, and Marketwatch went 4-4in total.  SportsInsights’ Betting Against the Public methods in the NFL, including Square PlaysBest Bets, and MarketWatch are having a solid season, with Square Plays and NFL MarketWatchproducing a combined winning percentage of about 55%.  NFL Squares and Marketwatch are at 58% and 56%, respectively.  Check out the Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.

SportsInsights stresses that sports investors should research profitable methods and then stick with their approach.  After both hot or cold streaks, we want to emphasize that bettors should stay the course and bet the same amounts.  View Last Week’s Column

What’s the Best Sportsbook to Bet Against the Public? 
I get this question all the time from readers.  If you are planning on “Betting Against the Public,” BetUSis a must-have sportsbook.  BetUS is a “public” book in the sense they get a lot of smaller, public, bettors who love the bonuses, freebies, and marketing.  With so many public bettors, BetUS leans their lines and as a result, they consistently offer the best underdog lines and the most generous depositing bonuses. You’ll get an extra 0.5 point to 1.0 point every time you make a bet.  Visit BetUS today , it’s where I bet!

NFL Week 17 Sports Marketwatch – Game of the Week takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

With this being the last week of the NFL regular season, betting action is fairly spotty.  Bettors are staying away from certain games.  However, the match-up between the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers is one of the heaviest-bet games of the week.  It features the playoff-bound Steelers, who are still “playoff-positioning” — as they vie for the divisional title (with Baltimore).  The public is jumping on the visiting Steelers to beat Cleveland by a touchdown or more — in this meaningful game for the Steelers.

About three out of four bets are taking the Steelers, so Cleveland has the “betting against the Public” factor going  for it.  In addition, this game features reverse line movement, an indication of “smart money” coming in on the home dog.  With 73% of the bets taking the Steelers, the line has actually decreased from its opener of Cleveland +6 down to +5.5.  The Steelers remain one of the NFL’s elite teams, but Cleveland has been competitive this season.  Let’s “bet against the Public” and check out some other betting trends on this match-up:

  • The Steelers are a solid 11-4.  However, in this age of balance within the league, four of Pittsburgh’s last 7 wins have been by less than a TD.  
  • The Browns are just 5-10 — but have scored almost as many points as they have given up (262-291).
  • Sports fans often over-estimate “games that matter” for one of the teams.  Cleveland is at home — for a divisional rivalry game.  They will “come to play.”
  • The Browns have shown that they can play solid football , beating teams like New England and New Orleans in the middle of the season (before losing a close game to the Jets).
  • After looking competitive at the middle of the season, Cleveland has lost three games in a row.  We’ll “buy” the Browns to bounce back at home, to end the season.
  • The Browns look like a “live home dog” getting some decent points. 
  • Note that home dogs have historically been a good bet, especially late in the NFL season, as mentioned in this academic article

Remember to shop around for the best line — and try to grab the +6 at some public books.  SIA currently has the game listed at +6, with the best associated odds, for added line value.

Cleveland Browns +6 (Bet at SIA +6) 

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep your eye on the NFL Marketwatch game of the week and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time oddsbetting trends, and winning betting systems picks.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.  Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio