12/25/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of SportsInsights.com, with the goal of providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is published every Saturday morning. Readers can sign-up to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Friday mornings. Sign-up to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch
Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try SportsInsights.com’s Premium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most advanced betting information, including real time odds and betting trends data from six (6) online sportsbooks.
SportsInsights takes an academic and contrarian view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in this article recently published in the Wall Street Journal, entitled, “A Contrarian’s Guide to Football Betting.“ SportsInsights is a leader in the sports information industry and has published a popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books as well as recent articles on: comparing the Sports Marketplace to the Financial Markets and Contrarian Sports Investing: Why It Works.
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 16
Recapping Last Week
Overall Regular Season (13-11-1 = 54.2%)
After several weeks of decent performance, the Public had another down week, going 3-5 in “lopsided-bet games,” which are defined as games having 65% or more bets on one team. Last Sunday actually started well for the public, but then Dallas, Tampa Bay, New Orleans and New England all failed to cover. As usual, some of the big names were overvalued. The Public’s 3-5 week brings the Public’s record to 52-57 = 47.7% in lopsided-bet games this season. This lopsided-bet “trend” has historically been an edge for contrarian sports investors.
SportsInsights’ contrarian methods had another good week, with NFL Squares, Best Bets, and Marketwatch going 6-4 in total. SportsInsights’ Betting Against the Publicmethods in the NFL, including Square Plays, Best Bets, and MarketWatch are having a solid season, with Square Plays and NFL MarketWatch producing a combined winning percentage of about 55%. Check out the SportsInsights.com Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.
SportsInsights stresses that sports investors should research profitable methods and then stick with their approach. After both hot or cold streaks, we want to emphasize that bettors should stay the course and bet the same amounts. View Last Week’s Column
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NFL Week 16 Sports Marketwatch – Game of the Week
SportsInsights.com takes a unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. SportsInsights.com collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Diego Chargers
As we made our holiday greetings with sportsbook risk managers around the industry, several of our contacts had this game circled. This game is one of the most lopsided-bet games of the week, with the red-hot Chargers garnering about 90% of the bets, including teasers and parlays. The constant pounding of bets on the Chargers is creating a bit of line value as the opening line of Cincy +7 has started to tick up to Cincy +7.5. Some public books even have Cincy +8.
The San Diego Chargers have won the AFC West for several years — and capture a lot of public interest because of their high-powered offense. We’ll “bet against the Public” and check out some other tidbits on this match-up:
- After a slow start, the Chargers have won 6 of their last 7 games, with their last 4 victories being blowouts.
- Their recent with margins of victories have averaged about 3-4 touchdowns! We’ll “sell the Chargers at a recent high.”
- San Diego is just 2-4 on the road.
- Although Cincy is just 3-11, their net points (Points For minus Points Against) are a “not-horrible” -81.
- The Bengals have had a tough schedule, playing the likes of the Jets, New Orleans, Indy and Pittsburgh — twice (!!) — just over the past seven weeks! In three of these games, the Bengals stayed within a TD of these strong teams — and in the Jets game, the Bengals looked stronger for the first half of the Thanksgiving Night game.
- We’ll “buy” the Bengals after their battle-hardened — but losing — stretch.
- The Bengals look like a “live home dog” getting some decent points.
- Note that home dogs have historically been a good bet, especially late in the NFL season, as mentioned in this academic article.
Remember to shop around for the best line — and try to grab at least the generally-available Bengals +7.5. SIA currently has the game listed at +8 for added line value.
Cincinnati Bengals +8 (Bet at SIA +8)
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep your eye on the NFL Marketwatch game of the week and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time odds,betting trends, and winning betting systems picks.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch. Enjoy the games!