NFL Marketwatch Week 13 2010-11

12/3/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is published every Saturday morning. Readers can sign-up to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Friday mornings. Sign-up to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch

Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try’s Premium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most advanced betting information, including real time odds and betting trends data from six (6) online sportsbooks.

SportsInsights takes an academic view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in our popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books and our recent article comparing the sports marketplace to the financial markets.

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 13                                      

Recapping Last Week

Overall Regular Season (11-10-1 = 52.4%) 

The Public reverted to its losing ways, going 2-4 in lopsided-bet games, having 65% or more bets on one team.  The Public rode big names and hot teams such as New Orleans and Philadelphia to losses “against the spread” (ATS), with New England covering.  The Public’s 2-4 week leaves the Public with a record of 39-43 = 47.6% for the season in lopsided-bet games.  Historically, this lopsided-bet “trend” has been an important part of the handicapping process for SportsInsights’ members.

SportsInsights’ contrarian methods captured the generally good week for “capturing value in the NFL marketplace.”  Although the NFL MarketWatch slipped to a 52.4% winning percentage, SportsInsights Square Plays swept the board, going 3-0 on Sunday.  SportsInsights’ Betting Against the Public methods in the NFL, including Square PlaysBest Bets, and Marketwatch are having a solid season, with Square Plays and NFL MarketWatch producing a combined winning percentage of about 55%.  Check out the Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.

SportsInsights stresses that sports investors should research profitable methods and then stick with their approach.  After both hot or cold streaks, we want to emphasize that bettors should stay the course and bet the same amounts.  View Last Week’s Column

What’s the Best Sportsbook to Bet Against the Public?
I get this question all the time from readers.  If you’re planning on “Betting Against the Public” this football season, BetUS is a must-have sportsbook.  BetUS is a “public” book in the sense they get a lot of smaller, public bettors who love the bonuses, freebies, and marketing.  With so many public bettors, BetUS leans their lines and as a result, they consistently offer the best underdog lines and the most generous depositing bonuses. You’ll get an extra 0.5 point to 1.0 point every time you make a bet.  Visit BetUS today, it’s where I bet!

NFL Week 13 Sports Marketwatch – Game of the Week takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New Orleans Saints highlighted this game in our NFL Opening Line Report blog post.  This match-up remains the heaviest-bet — and one of the most lopsided-bet — games of the weekend.  The public is betting on the defending champion New Orleans Saints as if this were a “soft line” — and as usual, we like the “ugly play.”  Including teasers and parlays, almost 90% of all bets are taking the Saints.  In addition to falling into our contrarian strategy of “betting against the Public,” this game exhibits “reverse line movement.”

The line opened with the visiting Saints being favored by Saints -7.  Early sharp action — and “big money” — on the Bengals has pushed the line down to Saints -6.5, overwhelming the Public betting on the Saints.  The contrarian NFL marketplace indicators are pointing to the Cincinnati Bengals in a big way.  What else do we see?

  • After a relatively sluggish start, the Super Bowl champ Saints have reeled off four wins in a row and have a record of 8-3.  During this streak, they beat a strong Steelers squad and a rejuvenated Cowboys team.
  • On the other hand, the 2-9 Bengals are currently on an eight-game losing streak!
  • Note, however, that in five of the Bengals losses, they have stayed within a touchdown of their opponents.
  • We like taking Cincy at home, “buying the Bengals low” — and “selling the Saints at a high.”
  • Note that home dogs have historically been a good bet, especially late in the NFL season, as mentioned in this academic article.

Remember to shop around for the best line, monitor the latest line — and try to grab the key number of seven.  Some of the “square books” are still at Bengals +7.

Cincinnati Bengals +7 (Bet at Bodog +7)

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep your eye on the NFL Marketwatch game of the week and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time odds,betting trends, and winning betting systems picks.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.  Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio