NFL Marketwatch Week 11 2010-11

11/19/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is published every Saturday morning. Readers can signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Friday mornings. Signup to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch

Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try’s Premium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most advanced betting information, including real time odds and betting trends data from six (6) online sportsbooks.

SportsInsights takes an academic view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in our popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books and our recent article comparing the sports marketplace to the financial markets.

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 11                                      

Recapping Last Week

Overall Regular Season (11-8-1 = 57.9%) 

The Public continued its losing ways by posting a 3-5 record last week in lopsided-bet games, having 65% or more bets on one team.  The Public rode the Jets, Eagles, and Bucs to wins “against the spread” (ATS) — but favored a slew of other hot names who failed to cover, including the Colts, Titans, and Vikings.  The Public’s 3-5 week leaves the Public with a 31-39 = 44.3% record for the season in lopsided-bet games.  Historically, this lopsided-bet “trend” has been an important part of the handicapping process for SportsInsights’ members.

SportsInsights contrarian methods didn’t quite capture contrarian value last week, with the NFL MarketWatch’s selection failing to cover.  Still, SportsInsights’ Betting Against the Public methods in the NFL, including Square PlaysBest Bets, and Marketwatch are having a good season, producing a combined winning percentage of almost 60%.  Check out the Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.

SportsInsights stresses that sports investors should research profitable methods and then stick with their approach.  After both hot or cold streaks, we want to emphasize that bettors should stay the course and bet the same amounts.  View Last Week’s Column

What’s the Best Sportsbook to Bet Against the Public?
I get this question all the time from readers.  If you’re planning on “Betting Against the Public” this football season, BetUS is a must-have sportsbook.  BetUS is a “public” book in the sense they get a lot of smaller, public bettors who love the bonuses, freebies, and marketing.  With so many public bettors, BetUS leans their lines and as a result, they consistently offer the best underdog lines and the most generous depositing bonuses. You’ll get an extra 0.5 point to 1.0 point every time you make a bet.  Visit BetUS today, it’s where I bet!

NFL Week 11 Sports Marketwatch – Game of the Week takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

The Minnesota Vikings are receiving just 25% of the bets (side bets as well as teasers and parlays) this week in their big match-up versus the Green Bay Packers.  With bettors getting on Green Bay as if they already know the final score of the game — the line has made a fairly dramatic move from the opening line of Minnesota +2.5 to Minnesota +3, with good associated odds.  You can receive the 3 points AND currently receive +105 odds at some sportsbooks.  This is a big move because it is “through” the key number of 3.

SportsInsights members and readers know that the team at SportsInsights likes to seek out “live dogs” — especially fierce Divisional Rivalries like the Vikings and Green Bay in recent years.  In addition, we see the following factors that might lead to value on the Vikings:

  • Green Bay is riding a three-game winning streak.  Let’s “sell” the Packers at a recent high.  They were just 3-3 before their current streak.
  • The Vikings lost last week to the Bears by two touchdowns.  Let’s “buy” them after their bad loss.
  • The Vikings are just 3-6, but their “net points” (“points for” minus “points against”) is almost break-even.  In addition, they have had a difficult schedule, losing to teams such as the Jets, New England, and New Orleans.
  • “Live home underdog” in Divisional Match-up

Our readers know that we like to “bet against the Public” so we will select the Vikings to bounce back against the Packers.  Grab the line value and shop around for the best line and odds at the key number of three.

Minnesota Vikings +3 +105 (Bet at Bodog +3 +105)  

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep your eye on the NFL Marketwatch game of the week and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time odds,betting trends, and winning betting systems picks.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.  Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio