NFL Marketwatch Week 1 2010-11

9/10/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome back to another exciting and profitable NFL season. This marks the 6th season of the NFL Marketwatch column. What started off as a simple weekly column, introducing sports bettors to the concept of tracking Betting Trends and Line Movement to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities, has quickly snowballed into one of  the betting industry’s most widely read articles.  We’d like to personally thank our readers for their support and suggestions over the last six years. Now let’s keep this freight train rolling!

NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is published every Saturday morning. Members can signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings. Signup to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch

Every week Dan Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If you’ve ever wanted to try’s betting systems, NOW is the time. SportsInsights is currently offering a 50% discount off the entire NFL regular season. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try’s Premium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most consistently winning information, including betting percentage data from seven online sportsbooks.

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NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance


Year Record Win Percentage
NFL 2009-10 25-22 52.1%
NFL 2008-09 26-22 54.2%
NFL 2007-08 26-19 57.8%
NFL 2006-07 31-18 63.3%
NFL 2005-06 31-24 56.4%
TOTAL 2005-09 139-106 56.7%


NFL Marketwatch NFL Week 1

Recapping 2009-10 (Regular Season 25-22 = 52.1%;  Playoffs 3-1 = 75.0%)

We are excited for the NFL season to kick off into high gear!  First, let’s take a look at 2009-10 and NFL Marketwatch’s performance over the past five seasons.  For the 2009-10 NFL season, NFL Marketwatch posted its first ever negative season, 25-23 = 52.1%.  However, we bounced back in the playoffs going 3-1, and picked the correct winner in the Super Bowl. Over the past five seasons, the NFL Marketwatch has posted an impressive record of 139-106 = 56.7%.  Not bad for a free weekly column!

If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit and sign up for a  membership. Your bankroll will thank you!

NFL Week 1 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities.  We learn which way every game is being bet.  By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants

The majority of the bets are coming in on the New York Giants, but Smart Money is coming in on Carolina, moving the line from +7 to +6.5 at most books.  We ‘re following the Smart Money and getting Carolina +7 while it’s still available.  Some additional edges for Carolina include:

  • SportsInsights research shows that 7-point underdogs (7 points or more) have value in the NFL marketplace.

  • In addition, Visitors are slightly undervalued as opposed to Home teams, especially with regard to “Betting Against the Public.”

  • A 7-point spread is fairly hefty for these two teams, which are historically defense-oriented teams.  In 2009, Carolina gave up just 308 points, 9th best in the NFL.

Carolina Panthers +7 -105  (Bet at Sports Interaction +7 -105)

Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles

This is currently one of Sunday’s most heavily-bet games, with over 90% of the bets taking the Green Bay Packers.  The public is betting this game like they already know the final score!   Heavy one-sided public betting has caused this game to move from a pick’em to -3.  We love getting a key number like +3, especially with a home dog.

This is one of the most lopsided-bet games that you will see all year, so let’s “Bet Against the Public” and take the huge 3-point line value.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 -105  (Bet at Sports Interaction +3 -105)

San Diego Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

This game is a classic example of the “reverse line movement” that we look for, a key indicator of the existence of “smart money.”  Including teasers and parlays, the visiting Chargers are collecting 80% of all bets.  Even with an overwhelming number of bets landing on the Chargers, the line moved in the opposite direction than we would expect.  The line opened at the Chiefs +5.5 (+ 6 at CRIS) — and has actually declined to Chiefs +4.5 (even with most bets on the Chargers!).  This typically means that some heavy hitters (and often “big, smart money”) are taking the side opposite the public and hitting the sportsbooks hard enough to overwhelm the 80% public bettors — and create the “reverse line movement.”

We’ll join the “smart money” and follow the reverse line movement on a “live, home dog.”  Take the points.  

Kansas City Chiefs +5 -110 So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 1.

Games to Watch (0-0-0)

Carolina Panthers +7 -105

Philadelphia Eagles +3 -105

Kansas City Chiefs +5 -110

It should be another exciting opening NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time odds, betting trends, and winning betting systems picks.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.  Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio