NFL Marketwatch – Week 9
11/6/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch! The column is published every Friday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try SportsInsights.com’s Premium Pro Membership.
NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 9
Recapping Last Week
All sportsbooks reported lower betting handles in NFL Week 8, attributed to no Sunday Night game and the lack of marquee match-ups. NFL Week 8 was a wash for the sportsbook industry; most books reported being flat to winning 1% of their handle. The sledding was a little tougher in Week 8 for the Public due to the fact that the St Louis Rams and Detroit Lions played each other, plus Tampa Bay Bucs and the Washington Redskins had a bye week. This took away what had previously been four automatic wins for the Public. However, the Public continued to cash in on the pitiful Cleveland Browns. The sportsbooks lost a few big decisions but also managed to win a couple. Oakland covering against San Diego and Philly routing the New York Giants were big games for the books — breaking up a lot to 3- and 5-team parlays and teasers.
Our Games to Watch returned to its winning ways, posting a 2-1 record. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public posted yet another winning Sunday, going 4-3. For the season, that makes the Public an impressive 38-26 = 59.4%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 65% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the first half of the NFL season has gone the way of the “Square.”
View Last Week’s Column:
NFL Week 9 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week’s most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate any game involving Washington, Tampa Bay, or Detroit to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Luckily for the sportsbooks, Cleveland and St Louis are in a bye week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints
This match-up boasts the largest point-spread of the week, with the high-scoring Saints favored by two touchdowns. Surprisingly, even with heavy one-sided action on New Orleans, the NFL sports marketplace saw reverse line movement in this game. Even with about 70% of all bets (including teasers and parlays) taking the heavily-favored Saints, the line dropped from its opener of New Orleans -14.5 down to -13.5.
SportsInsights’ Smart Money plays triggered on Carolina by Carib (17-6, +9.8 units) and WSEX (11-6, 4.3units). Our readers know that we like this kind of “reverse line movement” where we can follow the “sharps” — and “bet against the Public.” In addition, we like Carolina based on other factors such as:
- New Orleans has a short week because they played on Monday Night Football.
- Carolina is coming off a big road win against Arizona but still remains undervalued.
- Carolina is a big dog in a Divisional match-up.
- Although Carolina has given up some points this year, they have the NFL’s top-rated defense in terms of passing yards per game.
Carolina Panthers +13.5 (Bet at Sports Interaction +13.5 -110)
Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers
There was a general consensus among the sportsbook line managers that we spoke with this week. They said that early “sharp money” on Tennessee drove the line down from its opener of Tennessee +5.5 on Sunday — all the way down to +4.0 by Monday (!!) — even with a steady barrage of Public money on San Francisco.
We like this “Reverse line movement” — as well as Tennessee coming off an emotional win over Jacksonville. SportsInsights had a Smart Money play trigger on Tenn by BetOnline (16-8, +6.9 units). You can still get +4.5 at a couple of sportsbooks most notably, 5Dimes and Bodog.
In this “What-have-you-done-for-me-lately world” — Tennessee, with its 1-6 record this year, is making people forget that they were one of the NFL’s elite teams last year (going 13-3). A fairly hefty 68% of bets are landing on a San Fran team that has been sub-.500 both last year and this year. We think that Tennessee’s emotional win last week may “wake them up.” Sharps seem to agree that there is good value on the Titans — so we’ll tag along with the “smart money” and “bet against the Public.”
Tennessee Titans +4.5 (Bet at Bodog +4.5)
San Diego Chargers vs New York Giants
Will the real NY Giants stand up? After a hot 5-0 start, the Giants have slumped to 5-3, with 3 straight losses — where they looked very mediocre. San Diego, on the other hand, has won two straight games — although we note that the wins came against the lowly Raiders and Chiefs! The recent streaks have the Giants surprisingly undervalued — and San Diego overvalued!
The “sharps” don’t seem confused about the “real Giants” — at least in this match-up. The line opened at the Giants -3 and -3.5 at various shops. However, “steam moves” quickly moved the line all the way to -4.5 by Monday afternoon. The line has even touched -5 at many sportsbooks — but you can still grab NY Giants -4.5 at several sportsbooks. This is a rare opportunity to grab some value on one the NFL’s better teams. We think the Giants, at home, will “get well” with some “home-cooked food” and look for them to break out of their slump in a big way. Give the points.
New York Giants -4.5 (Bet at BetUS -4.5)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!