NFL Marketwatch – Week 4
10/02/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch! The column is published every Friday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games.
NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 4
Recapping Last Week
When it rains, it pours. NFL Week 3 continued the monsoon rains for the sportsbook industry. Another couple of weekends of this weather and there will be no sportsbooks left to take bets. The only silver lining for the books has been a profitable college football season. One line manager put it best, “We won on Saturday and then give it all back on Sunday.” We’re hoping for a break in the clouds and a little sunshine this weekend.
Our Games to Watch continued its downward trend, posting a 1-2 record. But sometimes just getting one win is a moral victory. Overall, the Games to Watch is in the red going 3-6 for the season. The good news is it’s a new month. We’re picking ourselves up off the ground, wiping off the dirt, and sticking to our guns. The biggest mistake most novice sports bettors make is changing their bet amount during winning streaks or losing streaks. Sharp bettors stick to their systems for the entire season and never alter their bet amount. When games start going your way, and they will, you want to be betting your normal amount to take advantage of the upswing.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public had another monster weekend, going 7-3. For the season, that makes the Public an impressive 19-10 = 65.5%. To put this into perspective: for the last 3 NFL seasons, games in which the Public was at least 65% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the first 3 weeks of the NFL have gone the way of the Square.
View Last Week’s Column:
NFL Week 4 NFL MarketWatch – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and betting statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week’s most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate Tennessee, Cincinnati, New York Giants, and San Fran to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view real-time wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.
New York Giants vs. Kansas City Chiefs
At the time of writing, this game is attracting the heaviest betting action of the week. Bettors are getting their hard-earned money down “fast and furiously” on the heavily-favored Giants. On paper, this game looks like a total mis-match. The Giants, led by a maturing Eli Manning — who is gaining confidence with every game — are Superbowl contenders and a solid 3-0. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are 0-3 after a 2-14 record in 2008.
Including teasers and parlays, more than 5 out of every 6 bets are landing on the Giants. That is HUGE! Weirdly enough, even with an overwhelming number of bets landing on the Giants, the line is moving the other way! The line opened at Giants -9.5 at Pinnacle, and Giants -9 at CRIS. The line is now generally available at Giants -8.5 — and at some books, Giants -8! This means that some “big money bets” are coming down on the KC Chiefs. “Big money” often implies “smart money.” Let’s “bet against the Public” and join the side of the “sharps.” You can still grab KC +9 if you shop around.
Kansas City Chiefs +9 (Bet at Sports Interaction +9 -105)
New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints
The Jets are flying high after their solid wins over New England and then Tennessee. We believe that the “very impressive” wins have the Jets currently overvalued. We’re looking to “sell” the Jets at this “recent high” as we expect them to come back to earth a bit — especially on the road against an explosive New Orleans Saints team.
Last year, both the Jets and Saints were slightly above average teams in the NFL. The Jets finished 9-7, while the Saints were 8-8. However, note that the Saints led the league with 463 points scored and a huge 57 TDs (and had a nicely “plus point differential”). This year, both teams are currently 3-0. Someone’s got to lose — but who’s it going to be?
Our contact at one of the major offshore sportsbooks circled this game because early sharp money moved the line from it’s opener of New Orleans -6.5 to New Orleans -7. Our SportsInsights “betting percentages” have the bets coming down fairly evenly. With the bets fairly even, but the point spread inching up to New Orleans -7, we know that there are some heavy hitters taking the Saints. We’ll go with the “early sharp money” and take the Saints to bring the visiting Jets back to earth.
New Orleans Saints -7 (Bet at BetUS -7 -110)
San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers find themselves in the unusual position of looking up at many teams in the standings, with just a 1-2 record. We’re looking to “buy” the Steelers at this relative “low point.” With more than 2 out of every 3 bets landing on the Chargers, many people don’t think the Steelers are as solid as they have been the past few seasons. However, even with most bets landing on the Chargers, the point spread actually moved in the direction of the Steelers!
The point spread for this game opened at Pittsburgh -5 but quickly moved to Pittsburgh -6.5. This is an indication that “smart money” is taking the Steelers to come back “to form.” We don’t often like taking favorites, but the Steelers giving less than a TD at home on Sunday evening is a good value. Give the points.
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 (Bet at BetUS -6 -110)
Games to Watch (3-6, 33.3%)
It should be another exciting opening NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!