NFL Marketwatch Week 20 2009-10

NFL Marketwatch – Week 20 – Playoff Edition
1/22/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition  of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch!  The column appears on every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games.  If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try’s Premium Pro Membership. You’ll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on weekdays at 6:25pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average,’s Best Bets have been consistently profitable across every sport!

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 20 Conference Championships

NFL Wild Card Weekend – Games to Watch Playoff Edition

(2-0 = 100.0%)

The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets.  The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most-wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl.  From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Super Bowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Super Bowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.

Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.

New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Public is solidly with Indianapolis, with almost 60% of the bets taking the playoff-experienced Colts.  The line opened at Jets +7, but the general consensus of bets taking the Colts has pushed the line to Jets +7.5.  If you shop around, you can find Jets +8 at several reputable sportsbooks. There is some decent value based on the line move from the key number of +7 all the way to +8.  The line has even ticked to Jets +8.5 at one or two books, but you should be careful about what “vig” you pay at that line.

The Colts almost had a perfect season, before coasting in for a few meaningless losses to end the season.  The Jets were the last team to claim a playoff spot.  Although the Jets quietly eked into the playoffs in the last game of the regular season, their good defense and solid running game are helping them make some noise in the playoffs.  The NFL’s best defense, getting +8 points, is a solid value.

This match-up is similar to other games where one team has more of a “powerhouse” reputation.  The Colts certainly have the ability to blow out the Jets.  However, historically — more often than not, the game ends up being closer than expected.  The Jets have the defense and running game to play with the Colts.  Let’s “Bet Against the Public” and take the streaking Jets +8 points.

New York Jets +8

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch – Playoff Edition  for the NFL.

Games to Watch – Playoff Edition   (2-0  100%)
New York Jets +8  

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!