NFL Marketwatch – Week 18 Playoff Edition
1/8/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch! The column appears on SportsInsights.com every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try SportsInsights.com’s Premium Pro Membership. You’ll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on weekdays at 6:25pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average, SportsInsights.com’s Best Bets have been consistently profitable across every sport!
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 18 Wild Card Weekend
Recapping Regular Season
The holiday season was joyous for the sportsbook industry in NFL Weeks 15 and 16, but the party ended in NFL Week 17. Last Sunday closed the final chapter on a tough NFL regular season for the sportsbook industry. All sportsbooks reported a slightly negative weekend with most losing between 0-1% of their handle. It was a tough NFL regular season for the sportsbooks. Let’s just say we’re all glad the playoffs are finally here.
Our Games to Watch stumbled in the final week, going 2-2, and for the season, that put us slightly above .500 but unfortunately in the red , 25-23-2, 52.1%. This is the first time in five seasons that NFL Marketwatch failed to produce positive results. We’re proud of our overall five-year record of 137-105 (56.7%), but disappointed in a sub-par 2009 NFL Season. We look to return to our winning ways in 2010!
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public went 4-4. For the season, that puts the Public “in the red” with a record of 66-64 = 50.7%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the 2009 NFL regular season went the way of the “Square.”
NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance
View Last Week’s Column:
I’d like to thank the line managers at our contributing sportsbooks for taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and minds. It’s been an education in itself. I’d also like to thank the loyal readers of Sports Marketwatch. Your encouragement and support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope the Sports Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of line value.
NFL Wild Card Weekend – Games to Watch Playoff Edition
(0-0 = 0.0%)
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
This game is the most lopsided-bet game of the week. Almost 80% of the bets are taking the Green Bay Packers (both spread bets and teasers/parlays). This is a perfect example of Public money causing irrational line movement. Public money is pushing this line from its opener of Arizona -2.5 to a +1.5. Arizona is the home team — and that is a huge move in the point spread. Historical results show that there is value in getting a home underdog in the playoffs.
In addition to “betting against the Public” and taking Arizona, SportsInsights had a “Smart Money” play on Arizona triggered by Carib Sports 36-18, +13.7 units. Arizona isn’t getting much respect, even though they lost last year’s Super Bowl by just four points! Take the under-valued Arizona Cardinals to be a live dog at home.
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 (Bodog)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch – Playoff Edition for the NFL.
Games to Watch – Playoff Edition (0-0 0%)
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 (Bodog)
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!