NFL Marketwatch – Week 16
12/25/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch! The column appears on SportsInsights.com every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try SportsInsights.com’s Premium Pro Membership. You’ll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on weekdays at 6:25pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average, SportsInsights.com’s Best Bets have been consistently profitable across every sport!
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 16
Recapping Last Week
Christmas came early for the sportsbook industry and our beloved Games to Watch section in NFL Week 15. All sportsbooks reported winning between 4-6% of their handle. The week started off in a promising way as the Dallas Cowboys upended the undefeated New Orleans Saints on Saturday Night Football. And on Sunday, the presents kept coming as Detroit and St. Louis covered while Tampa Bay and Carolina — both TD underdogs — won big. Overall, however, this continues to be a dismal NFL season for the sportsbook industry. The sportsbooks haven’t been able to sustain any positive momentum from week to week. But there is a silver lining: the last 2 weeks of the NFL regular season historically favor betting home underdogs. There is a good chance for the sports betting industry to close out the regular season on a high note.
Our Games to Watch bounced back, going 2-0-1, and for the season we’re back over .500, 21-20-2, 51.2%. We stuck to our guns and are in a good position to capitalize on the Public’s tendency to overvalue road favorites in the last two weeks of the regular season. We’ll look to finish the season strong — and in the black for our fifth consecutive year.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public got crushed, going 1-4. For the season, that makes the Public a respectable 58-55 = 51.3%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the 2009 NFL season has gone the way of the “Square.”
View Last Week’s Column:
NFL Week 16 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week’s most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate San Diego, Green Bay, New York Giants, Indy, Dallas, and Minnesota to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Tampa Bay Bucs vs. New Orleans Saints
In the spirit of the holiday season, Tampa Bay has been lit up like a Christmas Tree. All of the top-performing Smart Money sportsbooks have triggered plays on Tampa Bay. A sampling of the triggering sportsbooks and their Smart Money records includes: BetMania 27-18, Pinnacle 23-11, ABC 24-15, and Carib Sports 29-13.
Our main offshore contact circled this game. He told us that “big money came in early and pushed the line down from an opening line of 16 down to 14 points pretty quickly.” He pointed out that the junk bettors were getting down on New Orleans in a big way. SportsInsights’ data shows that about 80% of teasers and parlays are, indeed, getting down on the Saints. We like “betting against the Public” and going with the Smart Money. We also like the fact we can still get +14.5 at SIA.
Tampa Bay Bucs +14.5 (Bet at SIA +14.5 -110)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins
Historically, the last few weeks of the NFL Regular Season has seen the Public overvalue Visiting Favorites. This means that home dogs are undervalued near the end of the season. We like getting Washington +7 at home at SIA for a lot of reasons:
- Smart Money is getting down on Washington. This is supported by the following SportsInsights’ Smart Money triggering sportsbooks: Phoenix 15-5, Betonline 22-11, and Catalina 20-15.
- The Public is overwhelmingly on Dallas. A huge 83% of “spread bets” — and an even bigger 88% of “teasers and parlays” — are currently on Dallas.
- This is a big Divisional rivalry. Although this is an off-year for Washington, you can bet that the Redskins will be up for this game.
- The 4-10 Redskins are underrated because they play in the tough NFC East Division. Washington has actually scored just 50 fewer points than they have given up.
- Washington got blown out 45-12 last week on Monday Night Football. Let’s buy a competent Redskins team after that nationally-televised loss.
- The overwhelming number of bets has pushed the line to the key level of Washington +7 at SIA. This is a solid value.
Washington Redskins +7 (Bet at SIA +7 -110)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
Our old favorite — reverse line movement — is pointing towards the Chicago Bears in this match-up. The line opened at Chicago +7.5 but quickly moved to Chicago +7 — even with 80% of the bets taking the Vikings. Our faithful readers know that we like this kind of reverse line movement because it means that “big money” is more than counter-balancing the barrage of Public Bets — that are normally on the favorite. We’ll ride the “big money” coattails and “fade the Public.”
In addition to “reading the tape” of the NFL point spread marketplace, there is value in betting home dogs during the end of the Regular Season. Finally, this is a good old-fashioned Divisional rivalry — so the Bears will definitely be a “live” home dog. Being under the spotlight of Monday Night Football should also get the Bears up for this game. Take the 7 points and a Bears team that should certainly be motivated for this game.
Chicago Bears +7
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!