NFL Marketwatch Week 15 2009-10

NFL Marketwatch – Week 15
12/18/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition  of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch!  The column appears on every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games.  If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try’s Premium Pro Membership. You’ll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on weekdays at 6:25pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average,’s Best Bets have been consistently profitable across every sport!

Best Bets Plays Units
NFL 59-51 (54%) +2.4
NBA 104-82 (56%) +13.5
NHL 62-55 (53%) +12.1
NCAA FB 64-56 (53%) +1.5
NCAABB 73-48 (60%) +18.4

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 15

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 14 was painful for the sportsbooks and our beloved Games to Watch section.  All sportsbooks reported losing between 2-5% of their handle. The week started off in a promising way as Cleveland beat Pittsburgh outright on Thursday night football.  However, the wheels came off the bus on Sunday afternoon. Overall, this has been a tough NFL season for the sportsbook industry. They haven’t been able to sustain any positive momentum from week to week. But the strong survive and we’ll look to finish the season strong.

Our Games to Watch dropped a goose egg, going  0-3, and for the season we’re in the red, 19-20-1, 48.7%.  We’re picking ourselves up off the ground, wiping off the dirt, and sticking to our guns. The biggest mistake most novice sports bettors make is changing their bet amount during winning streaks or losing streaks. Sharp bettors stick to their systems for the entire season and never alter their bet amount. When games start going your way, and they will, you want to bet your normal amount to take advantage of the upswing. analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public had an impressive week, going 5-2. For the season, that makes the Public a respectable 57-51 = 52.8%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%.  Needless to say, the 2009 NFL season has gone the way of the “Square.”

View Last Week’s Column:

NFL Week 15  – Games to Watch

The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace.  We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on to pinpoint the week’s most profitable betting opportunities.

We anticipate New England, Arizona, Houston, Minnesota, and New Your Giants to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.

Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

This match-up fits our “contrarian sports investing value” in several ways.  First of all, a lot of “smart money” is coming in on Pittsburgh, with the line moving from its opener of Pitt -1 to -2 — even with two-thirds of the bets taking Green Bay.  This kind of reverse line movement means larger bets — and bigger money — is more getting down on the Steelers.’s proprietary software has many Smart Money plays being triggered on Pittsburgh.  In addition, our offshore contact, although still licking his wounds from last weekend, agreed that “his sharps liked the Steelers.”

Another reason to like the Steelers is that we can totally “buy low and sell high.”  Pittsburgh is on a downward spiral, losing five games in a row, while Green Bay has won five in a row.  Pittsburgh’s “playoff backs” are against the wall and we expect them to come out smoking at home.  The Steelers went from a 6-2 record to a 6-7 record during this streak, losing five close games to generally good teams.  The Public is overwhelmingly on Green Bay and this game is one of the heaviest-bet games of the week.  Take the contrarian value and shop for the Pittsburgh -1 line.

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 -110   (Bet at SIA -1 -110)

Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers

The Minnesota Vikings continue to play solid football.  However, we still feel that the media is causing the Vikings to be over-valued in the NFL Marketplace.  With all of the hype about Brett Favre and the 11-2 Vikings, there is bound to be an inflated line.  SportsInsights betting percentages verify that the Public is overwhelmingly on Minnesota.  Including all types of bets, a huge 80% of bets are taking the Vikings minus a chunk of points (-9).  Even more telling is that the “junk bets” such as teasers and parlays are going the way of the Vikings in a huge way: 85%!  The Public loves these types of “teasers and parlay” bets, showing that this is a particularly big Public game.

These sports marketplace indicators make us want to “bet against the Public.”  At a quick glance, even contrarian bettors will cringe when they see this play. The mighty 11-2 Vikings against a mediocre 5-8 Carolina Panther team?  We say: take out your holiday eggnog — and Pepto Bismol — and “man-up” with this Sunday Night Football play.  The Carolina Panthers have the sixth best passing defense this year and have scored almost as many points as they have given up this year.  The line has been bid up from its opener of Carolina +7 all the way up to Carolina +10.  That is some huge line value.  Historically, the last few weeks of the NFL regular season has been a good period to bet on home dogs.  Take Carolina plus the huge points at home.

Carolina Panthers +9

Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Seattle Seahawks

This is not the most glamorous games, but the NFL sports marketplace and SportsInsights’ indicators had us keying in on this game.  Keep your Pepto Bismol out because we like the 1-12 Tampa Bay Bucs in this match-up.  About three out of every four bets is taking the Seattle Seahawks.  The “junk bet” indicator that often flashes the “square Public’s” views has a huge 81% of bets on Seattle.

Even with all of the betting activity on Seattle, there is “reverse line movement”, with the line moving its opener of Tampa Bay +8.5 at CRIS (other books opened at TB +7), all the way down to TB +6.5.  That is a huge line movement through the key football number of 7.  The “smart money” really likes TB to move the line that much.  Let’s ride on the coattails of the “sharps” and “bet against the Public.”  TB has been on a slide, so let’s hope to “buy” them at this recent low.  If TB is going to “get off the ground,” getting 6.5 points against a mediocre 5-8 Seattle team is a good place to start.

Tampa Bay Bucs +6.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.

Games to Watch (19-20-1, 48.7%)
Pittsburgh Steelers -1 -110
  (Bet at SIA -1 -110)
Carolina Panthers +9
Tampa Bay Bucs +6.5

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!