NFL Marketwatch Week 14 2009-10

NFL Marketwatch – Week 14
12/11/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition  of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch!  The column appears on every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games.  If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try’s Premium Pro Membership. You’ll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on weekdays at 6:20pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average,’s Best Bets have been consistently profitable across every sport!

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 14

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 13 witnessed a major turnaround for the sports betting industry.  All sportsbooks reported a monster weekend – with most retaining well over 7% of their handle. Oakland, a +14.5 underdog, winning outright — coupled with Detroit, Washington, Cleveland and St. Louis all covering for the first time in my lifetime resulted in one of the most profitable Sundays in years.  And let’s not forget Miami shocking New England — and Arizona crushing one of the Public’s favorite teams: the Minnesota Vikings.  Look for handles to remain healthy as the Public’s pockets are still flush with cash.

Our Games to Watch returned to its winning ways, going  2-1, and for the season, 19-17-1, 52.7%.  We’re looking to ride this positive momentum into the final weeks of the season.. analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public had a tough week, 1-7. For the season, that still makes the Public a respectable 52-49 = 51.5%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%.  Needless to say, the first part of the 2009 NFL season has gone the way of the “Square,” but are slowly giving up ground.

View Last Week’s Column:

NFL Week 14  – Games to Watch

The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace.  We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on to pinpoint the week’s most profitable betting opportunities.

We anticipate Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego, and Arizona  to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.

Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

After a hugely-profitable week last Sunday, our offshore contacts were very talkative this week.  One game that was mentioned by several line-makers was the Jacksonville-Miami match-up.  Miami’s big win over New England has people talking — and believing — that the Dolphins are a solid team.  Indeed, about two-thirds of bets are taking the visiting, 6-6 Dolphins, over a 7-5 Jaguar team.

In addition to “betting against the Public” — there is “reverse line movement” in the NFL marketplace, with CRIS opening at Jax -2.5 and ticking to the key number of Jax -3.  This is an indication that “sharps” and “big money” are taking Jacksonville.  We like “selling” Miami’s big winning over New England.  Jacksonville, a solid playoff contender, is undervalued at -2, at home.

Jacksonville -2 -110

San Diego Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys

This should be a great game: two first-place teams!  This is potentially a playoff preview — yet the Public is betting this game like they know the score.  They can’t believe San Diego is getting +3.  This shows how the general Public has the philosophy of “what have you done for me lately?”  The Chargers have won seven games in a row — and have one of the league’s better point differentials at +100.

On the other hand, Dallas just lost a tough game to their divisional rivals, the New York Giants.  We’re going to “buy” the Cowboys after their loss and “sell” the Chargers at their recent “high.”  The Chargers look like they are currently overvalued, with a huge 80% of all bets (including teasers and parlays) landing on the red-hot Chargers.  Interestingly, there are indications that “sharps” are also taking the Cowboys.  Although the line has stayed at Dallas -3, the odds have shifted slightly from the generally-available opener of Dallas -3 +105 to Dallas -3-110 — even with almost all the bets going on San Diego.  This is a relatively large move because the line is at the key number of 3.

Dallas Cowboys -3 -110

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings

This is another battle of first-place teams.  The Minnesota Vikings and Brett Favre have the headlines this year — but the Cincinnati Bengals have quietly put up a 9-3 record.  One of our contacts alerted us that very early sharp money pushed the point spread from its opener of Minnesota -7 down to Minny -6.5 almost immediately.  We don’t often see such fast action — but our readers know that we like to follow the “sharps.”

Bets are split almost 50/50 — but we like the “smart money” “reverse line movement.”  In addition, we like the fact that the Bengals have been mostly “under the radar” while the Vikings have been in the headlines constantly all season — with Brett Favre leading the Vikings to a 10-2 record.  We’ll take the Bengals, plus a chunk of points, against a Viking team that showed a chink in its armor last week — with a loss against a solid Arizona team.

Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 -110

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.

Games to Watch (19-17-1, 52.7%)
Jacksonville -2 -110
Dallas Cowboys -3 -110
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 -110

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!