NFL Marketwatch – Week 13
12/04/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch! The column appears on SportsInsights.com every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try SportsInsights.com’s Premium Pro Membership. You’ll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on weekdays at 6:20pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average, SportsInsights.com’s Best Bets have been consistently profitable across every sport!
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 13
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 13 was a grind-it-out week for the sportsbooks. A lot of work and not much to show for it; most sportsbooks reported being flat to retaining 1% of their handle. There was little to cheer about this Thanksgiving holiday, as Detroit and Oakland got the stuffing kicked out of them. Sunday helped to turn things around for the books. Buffalo winning outright against Miami, coupled with Tampa and Cleveland covering — helped to break up a lot of Parlays/Teasers. Look for handles to remain healthy as the Public’s pockets are still flush with cash.
Our Games to Watch was flat for the week, going 0-0-1, and for the season, 17-16-1, 51.5%. We’re looking forward to returning to our winning ways. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public also recorded a Push, 3-3. For the season, that still makes the Public an impressive 51-42 = 54.8%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the first part of the 2009 NFL season has gone the way of the “Square.”
View Last Week’s Column:
NFL Week 13 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week’s most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate Denver, Houston, New Orleans, San Diego, and Minnesota to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Titans have been on a roll, so you would think that they might become over-valued. This might normally be the case, but not when you are facing one of the league’s two remaining undefeated teams. The Indianapolis Colts are 11-0 (as are the New Orleans Saints) — and look like the “class” of the league.
After an 0-6 start, the Titans have put together a 5-game winning streak and still have playoff aspirations. They have been doing what they need to do in order to win games and the NFL “marketplace” shows that the “sharps” are indeed getting down on the Titans. With bets coming in about 50/50 in this match-up, the point spread moved off of the key number Indy -7 down to Indy -6.5 — meaning that some “big money” moved the market.
This is currently the most heavily-bet game of the week — so the “market action” in the NFL marketplace is that much more significant. Our readers know that we love tailing the sharps — and we look for the Titans to be a real “live dog” in this match-up. Take the points.
Tennessee Titans +6.5 -110
New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Redskins
This is a true “contrarian” week — with our Games to Watch betting against the league’s two remaining undefeated teams. Indeed, a linesman from one of the largest sportsbooks told us this game had more of his book’s Squares taking the Saints — with junk — than normal. SportsInsights’ proprietary data shows that 90% of “junk bets” — such as teasers and parlays — were coming in on the powerhouse Saints.
With an overwhelming number of bets (both straight point-spread bets and teasers/parlays) — we like “selling” New Orleans after their big Monday Night win over New England. In addition, we like “buying” Washington on an up-swing. Although last-place Washington is just 3-8, they play in the tough NFC East Division and have been very competitive. They have been outscored by just 35 points during the season in total — and getting double-digit points at home looks like a good value. The Redskins have the #2 pass defense in the league — which might help them stay relatively close to the high-octane Saints offense. Take your indigestion meds and take the points.
Washington Redskins +10 -110 (Bet at SIA +10 -110)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals
A huge 85% of straight bets are taking the visiting Vikings -4 points against a very solid Arizona Cardinal team. Oh — and did we say that the Cardinals are also a first-place team like the Vikings? This is a “contrarian selection” that combines aspects of value from various sources. Firstly, we love to “bet against the Public” when there is an overwhelming number of bets taking one side. This “angle” is particularly strong when statistics and analysis indicate that the bets should be more evenly split — and that the game should be a good one…
Another aspect that we love is “media coverage.” All you see on the ESPN is how Favre is back in his prime. We see Brett Favre doing all kinds of advertisements — some of which are actually quite witty. We don’t argue that Minnesota, at 10-1, isn’t a powerhouse team. We do feel, however, that this kind of attention leads to over-valuation. Look for Arizona to give Minny a heavy dose of reality. How often do you get a first-place team — at home — getting more than a field-goal’s worth of points? The Cards have quietly built a 7-4 record and are undervalued.
Arizona Cardinals +3.5 (Bet at BetUS +3.5 -110)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!