NFL Marketwatch Week 11 2009-10

NFL Marketwatch – Week 11
11/20/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition  of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch!  The column appears on every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games.  If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try’s Premium Pro Membership. You’ll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on weekdays at 6:15pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average,’s Best Bets have been consistently profitable across every sport!’s Best Bets Results

Best Bets Plays Units
NFL 41-33 (55%) +8.3
NBA 31-20 (61%) +4.4
NHL 27-18 (60%) +7.1
NCAA FB 46-39 (54%) -1.4

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 11

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 10 went the way of the sportsbook; most books reported retaining 4-5% of their handle.  Washington winning by 10 points was the day’s biggest decision. That game in itself broke up the majority of “junk”, Teaser and Parlay bets. In most weeks, all the sportsbooks need is one big decision like Washington (winning outright over Denver) — to have a positive day. But the hits kept coming in NFL Week 10.  Carolina and Green Bay also winning outright helped to break up any remaining junk.  St. Louis and Tampa Bay covering ensured a profitable Sunday for the books. However, NFL Week 11 is shaping up to be another “lopsided-bet Sunday” with 8 games offering point spreads of at least 6.5pts and at least 77% of the bets coming in on one side.  There will be some big decisions this Sunday.

Our Games to Watch continued its positive momentum,  posting another 2-1 record and for the season, 17-13, 56.7%. analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public had back-to-back losing Sunday’s, going 2-5. But for the season, that still makes the Public an impressive 42-35 = 54.5%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%.  Needless to say, the first half of the NFL season has gone the way of the “Square.”

View Last Week’s Column:

NFL Week 11  – Games to Watch

The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace.  We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on to pinpoint the week’s most profitable betting opportunities.

We anticipate any game involving Cleveland, Washington, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, or Detroit to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Luckily for the sportsbooks, Cleveland is playing Detroit this weekend. Look for handles to increase this week due to a lot of lopsided match-ups, plus the addition of another Thursday night game.  Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings

This selection makes the “sports fan” in us cringe.  However, our readers know that we always follow the contrarian market action — and grab the best values we see in the “sports betting marketplace.”  So — take out that Pepto Bismol and be ready to “man-up” for this game. Minnesota, at 8-1, looks like the “real-deal” and is certainly one of this year’s NFL powerhouses.  They have outscored their opponents by an average of about 10 points in a tough NFC North Division.  Most bettors think that the Vikings will beat up on the 3-6 Seattle Seahawks

Indeed, 3 out of 4 bets are taking the Vikings at home this week, even minus the 11 points.  We note, however, that the 3-6 Seahawks, have scored about as many points as they have given up.  Seattle has shown some spark this season with two of their wins blowout victories.  The “smart money” seems to agree that the Seahawks are better than their record shows, as evidenced by the “reverse line movement” in this game.  We’ll take the double-digit underdog and sell the high-flying Minnesota Vikings.

Seattle Seahawks +11 -105   (Bet at Sports Interaction +11 -105)

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

Talk about teams going in opposite directions…  After a hot start — including a win over the Patriots, the Jets have lost 4 of their last 5 games.  Meanwhile, after a slow start, the Patriots are looking like their old “powerhouse” selves, beating Tennessee 59-0 and TB 35-7, along the way to grabbing first place in the AFC East.  Many bettors are thinking that the Pats will avenge their loss to the Jets in Week 2 — and give the Jets a spanking at Gillette Stadium.

At the time of this writing, this game is the heaviest-bet game of the week.  In addition, an overwhelming 80% of bets are taking the Patriots to beat the Jets by more than double-digit points.  Our readers, however, know what this means.  We want to “bet against the Public” — and we like the Jets, plus the double-digit points for a number of reasons:

  • We see our old favorite “reverse line movement” in this game’s sports marketplace action.  Even with almost all the bets coming down on New England, the line ticked down from the opener of Jets +11, down to +10.5.  Let’s grab the sharp’s coattails and take the double-digit underdog.
  • This is a good divisional rivalry.  The Jets have a good young QB and should be up for this game.
  • Buy the Jets at this recent “low.”
  • Sell the Pats after some of their recent blowout wins.

New York Jets +10.5  

Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans

One of our more colorful offshore contacts circled this game early in the week.  We spoke to this line-maker and he was carrying on about some of his sportsbook’s sharpest bettors piling onto Houston early in the week.  The line opened at Houston -3.5 but moved to -4.5 at most books by Monday!  SportsInsights flagged this move as “steam moves” early in the week.

Our contact said that Tennessee was attracting some Square money because they reeled off three wins in a row.  However, the wins have been against the likes of mediocre teams like Jacksonville, San Francisco, and Buffalo.  The last win was a blow-out win of 41-17 over Buffalo.  Needless to say, our guy thinks the Titans are overrated right now.  On the other hand, Houston lost a very tough decision to undefeated Indianapolis — at Indy — by a score of 20-17, two weeks ago.

Houston, with its 5-4 record, looks a bit undervalued, while Tennessee is overrated with its current three-game winning streak.  Let’s “buy low” and “sell high” and take a “surprising” favorite as a contrarian play (“surprising” because we don’t often find value on favorites).

Houston Texans -4.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.

Games to Watch (17-13, 56.7%)
Seattle Seahawks +11 -105  
(Bet at Sports Interaction +11 -105)
New York Jets +10.5
Houston Texans -4.5

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!