NFL Marketwatch – Week 10
11/13/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch! The column appears on SportsInsights.com every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try SportsInsights.com’s Premium Pro Membership. You’ll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on weekdays at 6:15pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. SportsInsights.com’s Best Bets are positive in every sport!
SportsInsights.com’s Best Bets Results
|Best Bets Plays||Units|
|NFL 41-33 (55%)||+3.5|
|NBA 31-20 (61%)||+8.3|
|NHL 27-18 (60%)||+9.4|
|NCAA FB 46-39 (54%)||+1.9|
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 10
Recapping Last Week
In an overall dismal NFL season, NFL Week 9 was a bright spot for the sportsbook industry; most books reported retaining 2-4 % of their handle. Tampa Bay pulling off a stunning victory over Green Bay broke up a lot of parlays and teasers. Other big games for the sportsbook were Tennessee winning outright over San Fran and Dallas winning on the road against Philly…both games were last week’s Games to Watch picks. The sportsbooks were also aided by the fact that two of the worst teams in the NFL, Cleveland and St Louis, had a bye-week.
Our Games to Watch continued it’s positive momentum, posting a 2-1 record. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public had a losing Sunday, going 2-4. For the season, that makes the Public an impressive 40-30 = 57.1%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the first half of the NFL season has gone the way of the “Square.”
View Last Week’s Column:
NFL Week 10 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week’s most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate any game involving Cleveland, Washington, St Louis, Tampa Bay, or Detroit to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handles to increase this week with some marquee match-ups, plus the start of Thursday night games. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Denver Broncos vs. Washington Redskins
Long-time readers of our “Games to Watch” know that we often need bad teams to do good things. This game is a great example of this contrarian theme. We have the last-place Redskins taking on the first-place Broncos. The point spread is a relatively low 4.5 points — so many bettors figure they should give the points and take “first-place” over “last-place.” To some bettors, this looks like a “soft line” — too easy to win.
However, when something looks too easy, it probably isn’t. Indeed, the “smart money” has been getting down on Washington since the line opened at Washington +4.5. Even with almost every bet (83% or 5 out of every 6 bets!) coming down on Denver, the line moved from Washington +4.5 down to Washington +3.5. This means that some “big money” is coming down hard on the Washington Redskins. “Reverse line movement” has been one of the best indicators for Sports Marketwatch and SportsInsights.com. A “Smart Money play” triggered on Washington by WSEX (13-6, +6 units). If you shop around, you can still grab a 4.5 at SportsInteraction, one of the better sportsbooks use when “betting against the Public.”
Washington Redskins +4.5 -105 (Bet at Sports Interaction +4.5 -105)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
A few of the linesmen we spoke to said that they would be watching this game closely. This is currently one of the heaviest-bet games of the week and more than 3 out of every 4 bets are landing on the Dallas Cowboys. With the Public overwhelmingly on Dallas, the line has been pushed from Dallas -1 to Dallas -3. This kind of line movement means that there is some value on Green Bay. We’ll take the Packers and “bet against the Public” — joining the sportsbooks, long-term winners in the sports betting marketplace.
This is a classic example of buying low and selling high. We like the fact that we are “selling” Dallas after a big road win over Philly — and “buying” Green Bay after their crushing defeat against the lowly Tampa Bay Bucs. Dallas has won four in a row, while Green Bay has lost two in a row. Take the undervalued Packers over the currently overvalued Cowboys. SportsInsights also had a Smart Money play triggered on Green Bay by Carib Sports (19-8, +9.7 units).
Green Bay Packers +3 (Bet at Bodog +3 -115)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Yes, folks, we’re putting our hard-earned money on the NFL’s worst team: the Cleveland Browns! You sometimes need an iron stomach and nerves of steel to follow our Games to Watch feature. We circled Cleveland for a couple of reasons. First, we like the fact that Cleveland is coming off a much-needed bye week. In addition, this match-up is featured on national television — on Monday Night Football — and is a home game for Cleveland. The crowd will be “juiced” — adding motivation for Cleveland to come out and play some football.
An overwhelming percentage of bets (85%) are taking the heavily-favored Ravens. Even so, there has been a hint of “reverse line movement.” This shows that Smart Money has come in on Cleveland — pushing the line from +11 to +10.5 at several sportsbooks. We’ll “bet against the Public” and join the “sharps” in taking a double-digit home underdog.
Cleveland Browns +11 (Bet at BetUS +11 -110)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
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