NFL Marketwatch Week 1 2009-10

NFL Marketwatch – Week 1
9/11/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome back to another exciting and profitable NFL season. This marks the 5th season of the NFL MarketWatch column. It’s been an amazing run as it’s achieving profitability in each of its first four years. We’d like to personally thank our readers for their support and suggestions over the last four years. Now let’s keep this freight train rolling!

The NFL MarketWatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL MarketWatch. The column is published every Friday afternoon. Members can signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL MarketWatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings. Signup to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports MarketWatch

Every week Dan Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If you’ve ever wanted to try’s betting systems, NOW is the time. SportsInsights is currently offering a 50% discount off the entire NFL regular season. If the NFL MarketWatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try’s Premium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most consistently winning information including betting percentage data from seven online sportsbooks. NFL Early Bird Promotion – 50% Off!

Now let’s get to this week’s games.

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 1

Recapping 2008 (26-22 = 54.2%)

We are excited for the NFL season to kick off into high gear!  First, let’s take a look at 2008 and the NFL MarketWatch’s performance over the past few seasons.  For the 2008 NFL season, Games to Watch was a solid 26-22 = 54.2%. Over the past four seasons, the NFL MarketWatch has a posted an impressive record of 114-83 = 57.9%.  Not bad for a free weekly column!

NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance

Year Record Win Percentage
NFL 2008-09 26-22 54.2%
NFL 2007-08 26-19 57.8%
NFL 2006-07 31-18 63.3%
NFL 2005-06 31-24 56.4%
TOTAL 114-83 57.9%

If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit and sign up for a  membership. Your bankroll will thank you!

NFL Week 1 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. collects betting statistics from seven major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time line movement to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities.  We learn which way every game is being bet.  By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

Atlanta Falcons -4 over Miami Dolphins

The Atlanta Falcons is an interesting play highlighted by certain NFL sports marketplace indicators.  When the lines for the first week of the season went up, much of the early action was coming in on the Dolphins.  The heavy betting on Miami had SportsInsights’ analysts keying in on Atlanta as a potential “contrarian” bet.  However, during the past few days, “sharp money” started landing on Atlanta.  The “betting percentages” have evened out, but the line has started to tick up to Atlanta -4.5 — a sure indication of “big money” or “smart money” taking Atlanta. with a record of  8-2, + 5.4 units triggered a Smart Money Play on Atlanta -4.

Our readers know that we love to follow the “smart money.”  We also like to “bet against the public.”  This game is unique in that both of these indicators pointed to the Falcons at different times during the week.  Both Atlanta and Miami had strong seasons last year.  Although Miami surprised everyone last year, they had a relatively easy schedule due to their horrendous season the year before.  Look for the Dolphins to come back to earth a bit this season.  If you shop the line around you’ll find a couple of solid sportsbooks offering Atlanta -3.5 which gets you off the key number 4. We getting down at Atlanta -3.5 -110 at 5Dimes.

Atlanta Falcons -3.5  (Bet at 5Dimes -3.5 -110)

Tampa Bay Bucs +6 over Dallas Cowboys

This is currently one of Sunday’s most heavily-bet games, with over 80% of the bets taking the Dallas Cowboys.  Dallas is always a “public” team and SportsInsights’ “betting percentages” highlight the heavy one-sided action.  We like the value in “betting against the public” and taking the Tampa Bay Bucs, a very capable home underdog.

The line opened at Dallas -3 but the heavy action on “America’s Team” has moved the point spread a huge 3 points.  This huge line move through several “key football numbers” gives us some nice value.  Take Tampa Bay as a “live home dog” and shop around for the best line you can get.  You can currently get Tampa Bay +6 at nice vig — but with the continued pounding of bets down on Dallas, the line could tick up to +6.5 or better.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 -105  (Bet at Sports Interaction +6 -105)

Washington Redskins +6.5 over New York Giants

The Giants are one of the favorites to get to the Superbowl.  On the other hand, the Redskins are Superbowl long-shots who finished in the basement of the NFC East.  Readers of our NFL MarketWatch series of newsletters know that we love to find “sports investing value” by taking teams that look overmatched.  With about 70% of the bets coming down on the Giants, we will “bet against the Public” and take the Washington Redskins.

When seeking “contrarian value” — we like taking underdogs in rivalries — and particularly divisional rivalries in the NFL.  The Washington Redskins should be particularly fired up for this divisional match-up on opening day.  As we near game-time, the line may tick up to Washington +7.  For now, we’ll take the widely available +6.5.

Washington Redskins +6.5

(Bet at Sports Interaction +6.5-105)

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 1.

Games to Watch (0-0-0)

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 -110    W
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 -105   L
Washington Redskins +6.5 -105  W

It should be another exciting opening NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!