NFL Marketwatch Super Bowl 2009-10

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Super Bowl Betting Trends Edition
2/05/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition  of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch!  The column appears on every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games.  If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try’s Premium Pro Membership. You’ll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on weekdays at 6:25pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average,’s Best Bets have been consistently profitable across every sport!

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 20 Conference Championships

NFL Wild Card Weekend – Games to Watch Playoff Edition

(2-1 = 66.7%)

The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets.  The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most-wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl.  From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Super Bowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Super Bowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.

Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New Orleans Saints

The Super Bowl is upon us — and what do the sports marketplace indicators have to say?  Early betting leaned towards the Colts, with about 65% of the bets taking Peyton Manning and his Colts.  This pushed the line from the Colts -3.5 opener all the way to -5.5 at many sports books.  Some books even hit -6.  Recent betting has been more “even” — and brought the overall betting percentage down to 57% on the Colts, and the line back down to -4.5.  If you shop around, you can still grab the Saints +5 at Bodog, WSEX, and SIA.

In addition to contrarian value and associated line value on New Orleans, SportsInsights’ proprietary analysis tool triggered two Smart Money Plays on New Orleans.  Our readers know that we like contrarian value as well as Smart Money indicators.  Over the years, this philosophy has proven to give our Members an edge in “sports investing.”

Indianapolis Colt Dwight Freeney is listed as questionable.  He will not practice all week due to a sprained ankle with possible torn cartilage.  Even if he does play on Sunday he should be less than 100%.  Freeney leads the Colts with 13.5 sacks.  This will give Drew Brees the extra time necessary to pick apart the Colts secondary.

The public often focuses on recent performance, and in this case, performance in the AFC and NFC Championship Games.  In particular, the public remembers the Colts comeback and thrashing of the Jets, starting near the end of the first half.  They also remember how the Saints nearly lost, even with the Vikings committing a crazy amount of turnovers.  Data shows that performance in the Championship game is relatively uncorrelated to Super Bowl performance.  This is a good opportunity to buy the Saints at a low and sell the Colts at a relative high — with data to back things up.

New Orleans Saints +5   (Bet at Bodog +5 -110)

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch – Playoff Edition  for the NFL.

Games to Watch – Playoff Edition   (2-1  66.7%)
New Orleans Saints +5   (Bet at Bodog +5 -110)

Enjoy the Super Bowl!