NFL Marketwatch Week 9 2008-09

Sports MarketWatch
NFL Week 9 – Early Moves
10/31/2008 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition  of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports MarketWatch – NFL Week 9

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 8 continued the sports betting industry’s string of positive Sundays.  All sportsbooks reported a profitable Sunday, with most retaining between 3%-4% of their handle.  Oddly enough, there was only one stunner last weekend – Cleveland going on the road and shocking Jax. What really helped the sportsbooks were a lot of favored teams failing to cover. The big games for the books were Miami over Buffalo, Cleveland stunning Jacksonville, and Seattle pounding San Fran. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public continued its losing ways, going 2-7,  making the Public 26-41 = 38.9% for the season. Games to Watch analysis continues its positive momentum, posting a 2-1 record, making it 14-9-1 = 60.9% for the season.

View Last Week’s Column:

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We anticipate that Tampa Bay, Denver, Arizona, Atlanta, and Philly will be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week.  Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 9 Sports MarketWatchGames to Watch (14-9 = 60.9%)

 Arizona Cardinals vs St. Louis Rams

The line in this game looks too good to be true.  The first-place Arizona Cardinals only have to give a field goal to the lowly Rams?  Our readers know that this type of “trap” game has us smelling value on the other side!  With the Public overwhelmingly on Arizona, this gives us added “value” on the Rams!

Three out of four bets are landing on Arizona — so we will “bet against the public” and take St. Louis as a live home dog.  Arizona is a first-place team, but is just 4-3 in the relatively weak NFC West Division.  We like taking dogs in tough divisional games — that often end up being closer than expected.  St. Louis started the season poorly — but has been playing a lot better, lately.  On the other hand, Arizona started the season 2-0 — but is just 2-3 in their last five.  Take the Rams plus the points.

St Louis Rams +3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Seattle Seahawks

This is one of those “take your man pills” games.  Time to find out if you really believe in the “betting against the Public.”  Seattle is coming off a big win.  We’re looking for them to continue this positive momentum at home against Philly.

Meanwhile, the Public is overwhelmingly on Philly at a rate we rarely see (almost 90% on Philly!).  They are betting this game like they know the final score.  The bookmakers are begging the Public to take Philly.  Some very sharp sportsbooks are offering the Eagles -6.5.  SportsInsights’ betting statistics indicate that there is a lot of Sharp money on Seattle.  Seattle +7 is widely available — and we’re hoping Public money will push the this line to 7.5 by game time.

Seattle Seahawks +7

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts

What a difference a year makes.  Last year, this was one of the biggest games of the regular season.  This year, both teams might not even make the playoffs…but that’s the beauty of the NFL.  The Public is leaning towards the Colts in this game.

Both teams have shown glimpses of the powerhouses that they can be — but have lacked consistency this season.  Imagine the Patriots getting points, let alone almost a whole touchdown!  We’re taking the points and looking for NE offense to finally start playing.

New England +6

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (14-9 = 60.9%)

St. Louis Rams +3
Seattle Seahawks +7
New England Patriots +6

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.  I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio