NFL Marketwatch Week 7 2008-09

Sports MarketWatch
NFL Week 7 – Early Moves
10/17/2008 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition  of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports MarketWatch – NFL Week 7

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 6 was another “grind-it-out” Sunday for the sportsbook industry.  Most sportsbooks again reported mixed results for the weekend, with most gaining or losing 1% to 2% of their handle. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public continued its losing ways, going 3-4,  making the Public 21-27 for the season. Games to Watch analysis swept the board, going 3-0, making it 10-7-1 = 58.9% for the season. (*There was a grading error in last week’s article; Tampa Bay has been changed from a Win to a Push.)

View Last Week’s Column:

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We anticipate the New York Jets,  Indy, and Chicago to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 7 Sports MarketWatchGames to Watch (10-7 = 58.8%)

407 San Diego Chargers versus 408 Buffalo Bills

JC, one of our offshore contacts, circled this game early.  Very early sharp money moved the line from San Diego being a slight favorite to Buffalo being favored.  Cris opened at SD -2, but is currently at Buffalo -1.  The line moved fairly significantly, even though about two-thirds of the bets are landing on San Diego.

This kind of market action is a good indication that early, large money came in on Buffalo, overwhelming the Public’s bets.  Our readers know that we like to go with the “big, smart money.”  You can still get Buffalo +0 (moneyline) for a decent price.

Buffalo Bills +0 SIA

413 Dallas Cowboys versus 414 St. Louis Rams

In this match-up, we like Dallas minus the points.  We don’t often like laying points and taking a favorite — but in this case — we’re selling St Louis’s big win over Washington.  In addition, we’re buying Dallas at a bargain because of a loss to Arizona last week and the injury to QB Tony Romo.  Dallas is well-balanced team with or without Tony Romo in the lineup.  Only laying a TD against St Louis is like betting with tomorrow’s scores!

Let’s buy (Dallas) low and sell (St. Louis) high.  Dallas is one of the league’s elite teams, while St. Louis is currently going through tough times.  The Rams have been outscored 62-164 this season.  Go with America’s team this week.

Dallas Cowboys -6.5 WSEX

417 New Orleans Saints versus 418 Carolina Panthers

Including teasers and parlays, about 70% of all bets are on the surging Saints.  The Saints blew out Oakland last week, 34-3.  The Saints’ offense has been explosive this year, leading the league in passing yards/game (324.7 yards/game) and total yards/game (412.2 yards/game).  Reggie Bush has had an inconsistent season — but has been explosive on punt returns and receiving.  The Saints have outscored their opponents 172-133 but are just 3-3.

Carolina, on the other hand, is less explosive — and has outscored their opponents by a more pedestrian 117-97.  However, they have a better and more consistent defense that has led them to a 4-2 record.  We’re looking for Carolina to bounce back after getting man-handled by Tampa Bay in the previous week.  Again, we are buying (Carolina) low and selling (NO) high — especially after New Orleans’ offense has caught the Public’s attention.

Carolina Panthers -3

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (10-7 = 58.8%)

Buffalo Bills +0  SIA
Dallas Cowboys -6.5 WSEX
Carolina Panthers -3

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.  I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio