NFL Week 19 – Early Moves Playoff Edition
1/09/2009 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports MarketWatch – NFL Playoffs
Recapping Regular Season
Christmas started early in NFL Week 15 and 16, but the party ended for the sportsbooks in NFL Week 17. All sportsbooks reported flat profits in Week 17 with most sportsbooks losing anywhere between 0%-2% of their handle.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public came out on top, going 5-2 — making the Public 57-75 = 43.2% for the season. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis stumbled in the last week going 0-1, making it 26-22-2 = 54.2% for the season. Not bad for a free weekly column; imagine the money you’d have won by using our Premium Pro membership! If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a Premium Pro Membership. Your bankroll will thank you!
2005 Games to Watch: 33-25 = 56.9%
2006 Games to Watch: 31-18 = 63.3%
2007 Games to Watch: 25-19 = 56.8%
2008 Games to Watch: 26-21 = 54.2%
I’d like to thank the line managers at our contributing sportsbooks for taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and minds. It’s been an education in itself. I’d also like to thank the loyal readers of Sports Marketwatch. Your encouragement and support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope the Sports Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of line value – while helping them to another profitable NFL Season. Visit SportsInsights.com to view Live Betting Statistics coming from the line boards of multiple sportsbooks.
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NFL Playoffs – Games to Watch (0-1 = 0.0%)
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans had a great year this year. They coasted the second half of the season — while most other teams had to play hard until the end of the season. As a result, we believe that the Public is under-valuing the Titans and over-valuing the Baltimore Ravens in this match-up. Indeed, more than 60% of the bets (including teasers and parlays) are surprisingly coming in on the underdog Ravens.
The Public normally likes favorites, but with Joe Public getting down on the underdog Ravens, there is unusual value on a favorite. Baltimore’s defense has been beating up on their opponents. Let’s take advantage of their “recent high” and sell Baltimore (and take Tennessee). The point spread is at the “key three number.” Even with the Public getting down on the Ravens, the line actually moved in the opposite direction. The line opened at Tennessee -3 +113 and has moved down to Tennessee -3 +104 at Pinnacle. This “market action” suggests that big money (“Smart money”) is taking the Titans.
The Titans coasted into the playoffs but we think they will “turn it up a notch” during the playoffs. Lay the points for the home town powerhouse Titans.
Play On Tennessee Titans -3
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:
Games to Watch – Playoff Editions (0-1 = 0.0%)
Tennessee Titans -3
It should be another exciting NFL Playoff run. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.
Enjoy the games!
- Daniel Fabrizio