NFL Marketwatch Week 17 2008-09

Sports MarketWatch
NFL Week 17 – Early Moves
12/26/2008 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition  of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports MarketWatch – NFL Week 17

Recapping Last Week

Christmas started early in NFL Week 15 and the party continued right on through to NFL Week 16.  All sportsbooks reported sizeable profits in Week 16 with most sportsbooks retaining anywhere between 3%-6%of their handle.  The last three weeks of the NFL season always have their share of surprises and upsets.  This year has been no different.  Pretty much every single big game went the way of the sportsbooks.  Tennessee winning big at home against Pittsburgh, the New York Jets losing to lowly Seattle and Oakland (a 7pt underdog) winning by 11pts over Houston were all huge games  for the sportsbooks. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public got hammered, going 1-7, making the Public 52-73 = 41.6% for the season. Games to Watch analysis continued its positive momentum, going 2-1, making it 26-21-2 = 55.3% for the season.  Not bad for a free weekly column; imagine the money you’d have won by using our Premium Pro membership!  If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit and sign up for a Premium Pro Membership. Your bankroll will thank you!  Happy holidays!

2005 Games to Watch: 33-25 = 56.9%
2006 Games to Watch: 31-18 = 63.3%
2007 Games to Watch: 25-19 = 56.8%
2008 Games to Watch: 26-21 = 55.3%

This time of year is tough for the oddsmakers, as teams that can’t improve their playoff position look to sit starters.  In addition, there are some horrible and meaningless match-ups.  We anticipate that Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and New England will be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week.  Visit to view live wagering statistics from seven online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 17 Sports MarketWatchGames to Watch (26-21 = 55.3%)

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

Time to “buy low and sell high.”  A few weeks ago, some people were picking the Jets to be the AFC representative in the Superbowl.  Since the Jets’ big win at Tennessee five games ago, the Jets have limped to a 1-3 record.  Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins have put together a four-game winning streak and are tied with New England atop the AFC East, one game ahead of the Jets.  The Jets looked bad last week against the lowly Seahawks while the Dolphins scored 38 points in defeating KC.  Time to buy the Jets at a recent “low” and sell the Dolphins at a “peak.”

The “sharps” also feel that there is good value on the New York Jets.  The line opened at CRIS at Jets -2.5.  The majority of bets — especially teasers and parlays — are on Miami, but the line has ticked up to the “key three number.”  There are still some 2.5’s available that we would grab ASAP.

Many of the Dolphins’ wins this year have been by just a few points.  They beat the teams they should — but don’t seem to be as good as their 10-5 record.  On the other hand, the Jets have been underperforming lately.  Overall, we believe that the Jets are a better team, so we like giving less than a FG at home.

New York Jets -2.5 -110 (BetUs)

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (26-21 = 55.3%)

New York Jets -2.5 -110  (BetUs)

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.  I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio