NFL Marketwatch Week 11 2008-09

Sports MarketWatch
NFL Week 11 – Early Moves
11/14/2008 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition  of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports MarketWatch – NFL Week 11

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 10 was a bloodbath for the sportsbook industry.  When it rains, it pours.  And it poured on the sportsbooks all day Sunday.  All sportsbooks reported losing anywhere from 3% to 5% of their handle, resulting in a long day of payouts on Monday.  The game that really hurt was Carolina versus Oakland.  With less than one minute left in the game, Oakland attempted a field goal that would have covered the line…and the football hit the bottom of the cross bar.  That’s just the way things went on Sunday. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public swept the board, going 4-0,  making the Public 32-45 = 41.6% for the season. Games to Watch analysis continued its downward trend, posting a 1-2 record, making it 16-13-1 = 55.2% for the season.

View Last Week’s Column:

We anticipate that the New York Giants, Tennessee, Philly, and Arizona will be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week.  Visit to view live wagering statistics from seven online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 11 Sports MarketWatchGames to Watch (16-13 = 55.2%)

Baltimore Ravens +7 over New York Giants

The Baltimore Ravens are an excellent football squad that will give the New York Giants all they can handle.  The Public is overwhelmingly on New York, causing the line to move from Baltimore +6 to +7.  Three out of four bets are landing on the mighty Giants.  The Giants have been playing unbelievable football and we believe that they are riding high.  Too high!

We’ll “bet against the Public” and sell the Giants at this over-valued level.  Moving from the “key number of 6” all the way to the “key 7” gives us some additional quantifiable value.  We’ll take the 6-3 Ravens, back the bloated line — and look for a close game.

Baltimore Ravens +7

Detroit Lions +14 over Carolina Panthers

Long-time readers of the Sports Marketwatch must have seen this play coming!  We couldn’t resist taking a +14 point underdog.  Detroit is horrible.  We’re taking Detroit and hoping they “suck a little less” this Sunday.  Time to “man up” and find out who really believes in “betting against the Public!”

Detroit is the league’s only winless team at 0-9.  You can’t get any lower than that, so there seems to be some value in buying the league’s doormat at a low.  At the same time, we get to sell the first place Carolina Panthers at a high — winners of their last three games.  Carolina has averaged about 20 points a game, so beating the 14 point spread is a mighty tall order.  The line looks like it might increase to +14.5, so shop for the best line.

Detroit Lions +14

Seattle Seahawks +3 over Arizona Cardinals

This game will be the most lopsided-bet game of the weekend.  The Public is betting this game like they have an advance copy of Monday’s sports page.  The sportsbooks are begging the Public to take Arizona -3.  A huge 90% of the bets are taking the first place Cardinals.  And, why not?  Arizona is a first place team at 6-3, while Seattle is a weak 2-7.

We’re cashing in on the current media frenzy surrounding Arizona and Kurt Warner.  Seattle is a squad that’s improving every week.  Arizona is a team that is showing weakness.  In addition, Seattle QB Hasselbeck is back in the starting line-up.  This will help improve Seattle’s stagnant offense.  We also like this play because of the “home dog” factor — particularly in a divisional match-up.

Seattle Seahawks +3

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (16-13 = 55.2%)

Baltimore +7 
Detroit +14
Seattle +3

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.  I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio