NFL Week 10 – Early Moves
11/07/2008 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports MarketWatch – NFL Week 10
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 9 started out great for the sportsbooks, then turned ugly in the 4pm games. It ended up being a “grind-it-out” Sunday, with not much to show at the end of the day. Most sportsbooks reported retaining between 0%-1% of their handle. Oddly enough, most of the games went the sportsbooks’ way except two of the most lopsided-bet games of the weekend. Philly pounding Seattle, and Arizona handing it to St. Louis — cost the books dearly. “The 4pm Seattle vs. Philly game really let The Public off the hook,” stated Skybook’s line manger JC.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public continued its losing ways, going 2-4, making the Public 28-45 = 38.3% for the season. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis stumbled last week, posting a 1-2 record, making it 15-11-1 = 57.7% for the season.
View Last Week’s Column:
NFL WEEK 10
We anticipate that Tennessee, Baltimore, Carolina, and Arizona will be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. This proves once again, that it’s not always how you play, but who you play. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 10 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (15-11 = 57.7%)
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Early Smart money coming in on Buffalo +4 pushed the line down to Buffalo +3.5. This line movement is moving against the Public betting percentage, which favors the New England Patriots slightly. Almost 60% of the bets are coming in on the Patriots. Memories die hard — but who can blame the public — after the Patriots’ dominance the past few seasons? The betting percentage isn’t as extreme as you might expect — because the Buffalo Bills have been playing solid football and find themselves in a three-way tie for first place with the Patriots and the Jets.
Even so, we always like joining the Smart money. There are still some +4’s on the board — so shop around for the best price. Take the four points and take the visiting Bills to keep this game closer than most expect.
Buffalo Bills +4
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers
Wow, a spread of +15.5?!! Getting more than 2 TDs? You would think that last year’s Patriots were playing. The Chargers are giving a LOT of points in this game. The Chargers are at home — but they aren’t exactly the NFL’s elite, holding a record of 3-5. However, the Chargers are playing the league’s doormat, the 1-7 KC Chiefs. The Chiefs are among the NFL’s worst teams in terms of “points for” minus “points against” at -97.
The Chargers have actually played better than their 3-5 record suggests, outscoring their opponents 224-199. Still, we like the value in getting +15 points. Time to break out the good stuff and hope KC can play a full 4 quarters. Sometimes, the ugliest game on the board offers the best value.
Kansas City Chiefs +15.5
Carolina Panthers vs. Oakland Raiders
At the time of this writing, this is the most lopsided-bet game of the weekend. A huge 5 out of 6 bets are taking Carolina over the Oakland Raiders. How low can the Raiders go? We’ll find out this Sunday. Once again we’re defying conventional wisdom and taking the one of the worst teams in the NFL — and hoping they don’t suck too bad. We like the points and the fact that Oakland is playing at home with nothing to lose.
We’ll “bet against the Public” and grab the added value on a home dog line that looks like it get to +10 by game time – due to the Public’s pounding their “square money” on Carolina. Carolina is a solid playoff-caliber team, but their offense is “just average” and this spread is asking a lot.
Oakland Raiders +9.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:
Games to Watch (15-11 = 57.7%)
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.
Enjoy the games!