NFL Marketwatch Week 1 2008-09

Sports MarketWatch – NFL Edition
NFL Week 1 – Early Moves
9/5/2008 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome back to the NFL Edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace.

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 1

Recapping 2007 (26-19-2 = 57.8%)

We are excited for the NFL season to kick off into high gear!  First, let’s take a look at 2007 and Sports MarketWatch’s performance over the past few seasons.  For the 2007 NFL season, Games to Watch was a solid 26-19 = 57.8%.  Over the past three years, MarketWatch has a published record of 90-62 = 59.2%.  Not bad for a free weekly column.

It was great year for SportsInsights’ style of analyzing the NFL point spread marketplace.  Please join us as we kick off a new and exciting NFL season!

If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit and sign up for a membership. Your bankroll will thank you!

2007 Games to Watch = 26-19 = 57.8%
2006 Games to Watch = 31-18 = 63.3%
2005 Games to Watch = 33-25 = 56.9%
2005-07  Overall          = 90-62 = 59.2%

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NFL Week 1 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. collects betting statistics from major online sportsbooks and talks to odds makers.  We learn which way every game is being bet.  By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

471 Dallas Cowboys vs Cleveland Browns

This is the most “lopsided-bet” game of the weekend.  The public is betting this game like they know the score.  The Dallas Cowboys were one of the best teams last year and are one of the Superbowl favorites this year.

While we agree that the Cowboys are once again “America’s Team” – we’re against the preseason hype surrounding the Cowboys.  The hype is potentially creating an over-valuation on the Cowboys.  This week’s NFL betting data confirms that the public loves “America’s team.”  In this week’s game, Dallas is collecting almost five out of every six bets versus Cleveland.

The line opened at Dallas -3 but the avalanche of bets on Dallas has moved the line all the way to Dallas -6.  That is a huge 3 point value.  In the NFL, a field goal is a solid value.  We’re taking the +6 offering at Sportsbook or SIA, looking for the Browns to keep it close.

Cleveland Browns +6 (Sports Interaction)

455 New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

There is heavy one-sided action on the New York Jets -3.  The Jets are receiving about 80% of all bets placed on this game. The Public has been swayed by the “Summer of Favre” media frenzy – and the memory of the Dolphins compiling a 1-15 season in 2007.

Let’s not forget that the Jets (4-12) only scored one more point last season than the one-win Dolphins, who were without their top two running backs (Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams) for the majority of the season.  In addition, Brett Favre still doesn’t have a full grasp of the Jets’ playbook, which will limit what plays the coaches can call.

We love the value in the Home Dog value in getting Miami +3, plus the fact that despite heavy one way action on the Jets, the line hasn’t moved.  This is an excellent indicator that the Sharp money is on Miami +3.  Our readers know that we always follow the Sharp money!

Miami Dolphins +3 (BetUS)

479 Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Monday Night Football has the Favre-less Green Bay Packers at home versus the Minnesota Vikings.  You would think that “the solid Packer playoff team” from last year lost half of their team in addition to their aging star, Brett Favre.

The visiting Minnesota Vikings are collecting about 70% of the bets.  All of this public money has pushed the “number” off of the huge key number of 3. There is good value in getting Green Bay -2 at home.  We’ll “bet against the public” and grab this contrarian value.

Green Bay Packers -2

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 1.

Games to Watch (0-0-0)
Cleveland Browns +6 (SIA) 
Miami Dolphins +3 (BetUS)
Green Bay Packers -2

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio