NFL Marketwatch Week 21 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch – Playoffs Edition
NFL Week 21 – NFL Super Bowl
1/30/2008  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 21 – Super Bowl

NFL Playoffs – Games to Watch

The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.

New York Giants vs New England Patriots

SportsInsights’ exclusive betting percentages show that an amazing 67% of the bets are on the surprising NY Giants. The line opened at NE –14 but the steady stream of bets on NY has pushed the line all the way down to NE –12. One sportsbook (Sports Interaction) even has NE-11.5 at the time of this article. The steady public action on the Giants has caused a huge 2-point move off of the key number of 14: a nice value.

The Giants have had a good run in the playoffs. On the other hand, New England hasn’t covered the spread over the latter part of the season. As our readers know, we like to “buy low and sell high.” For the SuperBowl, we’ll “buy” the Patriots at a low and “sell” the Giants at a high. Speaking of value and buying things “at a low” – we think that Tom Brady is going to bounce back mightily after his subpar performance last game.

We see good value on New England –11.5 in the SuperBowl. This is “for all of the marbles” and we see the Patriots showing why they are one of the best in history.

New England Patriots –11.5 (Sports Interaction)

Playoff Recap
New England Patriots –11.5  (Sports Interaction)

It should be another exciting Super Bowl. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.comm for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio