Sports Marketwatch – Playoffs Edition
NFL Week 19 – NFL Playoffs
1/11/2008 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 19 – NFL Playoffs
NFL Playoffs- Games to Watch
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
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Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers
The NFL playoffs create a lot of betting interest – and the public is solidly on the Seattle Seahawks. Almost two out every three bets is coming in on a Seattle team that trounced Washington and ended the season strongly. On the other hand, Green Bay has been “flying under the radar” for much of the season. The public doesn’t seem to respect the Packers and this gives us value.
The line opened at Green Bay -8 (-9 at + vig at Pinnacle) but has already reached Green Bay -7 at some sportsbooks. That is a huge 1 to 2 point value near the “key number” of 7.
Green Bay has not yet earned the public’s respect, but they have beaten many quality opponents this season and look like a solid value. Take Green Bay and be on the side of the long-term winners: the sports books.
Green Bay Packers -7
New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
The Giants are collecting 70% of the bets placed on this game, based mainly on their strong performances over the past few weeks. Last week, Eli Manning looked solid in the Giants’ 24-14 over a good Tampa Bay squad. This followed a huge showing versus the Patriots, even in defeat. That game, which was a heavily-watched nationally-televised media event, earned the Giants many believers.
On the other hand, the Dallas Cowboy juggernaut seems to have slowed down near the end of the season. There are a lot of Cowboy question marks, including Romo’s thumb and TO’s ankle. We feel, however, that the Giants have question marks of their own: particularly Eli Manning’s historic inconsistency. Based on this information, our readers know that we see this as a good contrarian play: buying Dallas at a “low” and selling the Giants at a “high.”
Our oddsmaker contacts at the sportsbooks agree. The line opened at Dallas -7.5 and has stubbornly stayed at that level. The linesmakers tell us that heavy public betting on the Giants is balancing “sharp money” on the Cowboys. With the increased betting interest during the NFL playoffs, however, we may see public money pushing the line down to Dallas -7 across the board. We already see Dallas -7 at the Greek.
Dallas Cowboys -7
Green Bay Packers -7 (Olympic -7-105)
Dallas Cowboys -7 (Sports Interaction -7)
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.comm for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!