NFL Marketwatch Week 1 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 1
9/7/2007  2:01 PM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 1

NFL 2006 Season Recap (31-18 = 63.3%)

Recapping 2006

It’s always nice to start off the year by taking a look back and 2006 was a year to remember. For the 2006 NFL season, Games to Watch was an impressive 31-18 = 63.3%. Not bad for a free weekly column. Last year, by all accounts, was the “Year of the Dog,” resulting in one of the most profitable NFL seasons on record for the sports betting industry. analysis showed that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public posted a dismal 42-71 record for year. No wonder there were so many foreclosures this year…just kidding! It was great year to be fading the Public – but let’s not linger on the past too long: a new NFL season is upon us!

If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit and sign up for a membership. Your bankroll will thank you for it!

2006 Games to Watch = 31-18 = 63.3%
2005 Games to Watch = 33-25 = 56.9%
Overall = 64-43 = 59.8%


It’s been an extremely long preseason and it’s finally time for some REAL football. Oh, how I hate preseason football. I never bet it and I never will, but let’s save that rant for another time.

Warning to all new readers of the Sports MarketWatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need nerves of steel and an iron stomach. Purchasing a case of Pepto-Bismol wouldn’t be a bad idea. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

We anticipate New England, Pittsburgh, and Seattle to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit to view wagering statistics on every NFL game from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 1 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

I circled this game the day the Patriots announced the Randy Moss deal. I think the Pats are an excellent team but the media hype surrounding them is causing a lot of over valuation. If you listen to the experts they are all saying the same thing – let’s forget the season and hand the Lombardy Trophy to the Brady Bunch .As Michigan (Brady’s old school) will tell you, there is a reason they play the games.

This game will be one of the top three most lopsided bet games. The sportsbooks will need the Jets HUGE this weekend. I love being on the side of the sportsbooks. The line opened at New England -6.5 and most sportsbooks have remained there all week. A couple of Square sportbooks (“square” sportsbooks cater to novice bettors) are shading the line to New England -7. We eat these kinds of shaded lines for lunch!

I double circled this game when I saw Pinnacle, a sharp sportsbook (“sharp” sportsbooks cater to professional bettors) moved their line against the Public to New England -6. A betting line moving in the opposite direction of the Public “betting percentages” is a sure tell-tale sign that large amounts of money have come in on the other side. Would you rather be on the team that has 1000 $100 sports bettors, or on the team that has one $100,000 bettor? You guessed it; our cash is always with the sharp money!

There are a couple of +7’s currently out in the marketplace, most notably We’re locking in the Jets at +7 -110 and looking for the fighting Mangini’s to show the sport pundits why they play the games on the field and not in the TV studios.

New York Jets +7 -110 (

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks

There is little doubt in the sportsbook industry that this will be one of the most lopsided bet games of the weekend. The Public can’t get enough of Seattle. We circled this game for multiple reasons.

• Public overwhelmingly on one side, 83% on Seattle
• Sharp Money on Tampa Bay

The game opened Seattle -6 and then, by mid-week, most of the major sharp sportsbooks moved to Seattle -5.5 even though over 83% of bets placed on this game are on Seattle. There are still plenty of 6’s and 6.5’s on the board. For the purpose of this article, we’ll take +6 -105 at, and once again be on the Sharp side.

Tampa Bay +6

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings

I circled this game for the exact opposite reason as the New England Patriots game. This is a classic “buy on bad news” situation with all the negative publicity surrounding Michael Vick’s demise. I think Atlanta is a good football team – with a solid head coach – who has them prepared to play on Sunday. There is no doubt that Vick was a “game-changing playmaker” but I believe his departure will make Atlanta a more balanced team that can win by throwing or passing the ball.

As expected, there is heavy one-sided action on Minnesota. The early Public money has pushed this line from Minnesota -2.5 to Minnesota -3. We’re taking Atlanta +3 -110 and looking for Atlanta to show the league there is life after Vick.

Atlanta +3

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 1.

Games to Watch (0-0)
New York Jets +7
Tampa Bay +6
Atlanta +3

It should be another exciting opening NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketplace Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio