NFL Marketwatch Week 9 2006-07

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 9
11/03/2006  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes,, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.

Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 9

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 8 continued the sportsbook industry’s string of profitable Sundays, with most sportsbooks retaining 2%-3% of their handle. The biggest game of the day was Oakland stunning Pittsburgh. “Pittsburgh losing outright against arguably the worst team in the NFL was huge. Oakland, Cleveland, and Baltimore winning outright broke up a lot of junk (parlay/teasers),” explained line manager Lou. “Every week it comes down to a couple of horrible teams coming up big.” Since Week 2, this has been the “year of the sportsbooks.” Every sportsbook we spoke with stated that October’s revenue eclipsed all of last season’s football revenue. Now that’s a monster month!

The Public had another down weekend. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public posted their sixth consecutive losing weekend, going 3-4. Over the last 6 weeks, the Public has posted a dismal 15-31 record…ouch! Games to Watch analysis continues to roll, posting another profitable weekend, going 2-1. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 15-9 = 63%.

View last week’s column. *Source:

Looking Ahead to this Week

We anticipate Chicago, San Diego, Dallas, and the New York Giants to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to decrease, as the Public has no idea where to turn. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from five online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 9 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

The underlining theme every week is to identify Value. Tennessee is coming off its first back-to-back win since Dec 2003. They believe they can win behind rookie QB Vince Young. The media has been swarming around Jacksonville’s QB controversy. Is Garrad or Leftwich the man? This kind of negative attention will undoubtedly effect team moral and play on Sunday. We believe a much-improved and better-prepared Tennessee team will give Jacksonville all they can handle.

CRIS opened with Jacksonville -10 and quickly retreated to -9.5 after they received a good deal of early Sharp money on Tennessee +10. Most sportsbooks opened at -9 and -9.5 and have seen steady two-way Public action. There are plenty of +10 still on the board. Our money is with the early Sharp action at Tenn +10 and an explosive Vance Young.

Tennessee Titians +10

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Redskins

We circled this game for the Home Dog value. Washington getting +3 at Home against a Dallas team led by Tony “The Flash” Romo? Yes, Romo had an impressive first start…but let’s face it: a couple of those TDs were handed to him by Carolina turnovers. We believe Joe Gibbs isn’t going down without a fight. Look for Washington to finally put together a complete game and play all FOUR QUARTERS. Washington has the talent and the coaching to beat Dallas. We’re taking Washington +3 at home.

Washington Redskins +3

Miami Dolphins vs Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears have crushed teams at home this season. They are one of the biggest Public teams week in and week out. Chicago almost losing outright to Arizona on Monday Night Football was by far the biggest game of the year for every sportsbook. When Chicago plays, the Public money follows. You could honestly post any number (-14, -16, -18) on this game and the majority of the public would still take Chicago. The oddsmakers know this have shaded the line 2-2.5pts. Every sportsbook we spoke to reported taking heavy one-sided Public action on Chicago. We believe the Public money will push this game to 14 before kick. We suggest taking a double shot of Pepto and getting down on Miami +13.5 (+14 if you can wait).

Miami Dolphins +13.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 9.

Games to Watch (15-9)
Tennessee Titans +10
Washington Redskins +3
Miami Dolphins +13.5

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio