NFL Marketwatch Week 8 2006-07

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 8
10/27/2006  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes,, and Oasisabout which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 8

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 7 witnessed another positive weekend for the sportsbook industry, with most sportsbooks retaining 3%-4% of their handle. The biggest game of the day was Tampa Bay beating Philly outright on a last minute field goal. “That game broke up a significant amount of the teaser bets,” explained line manager Lou. Atlanta, KC, and Oakland winning outright ensured a lucrative Sunday for the sportsbooks.

The Public had another miserable weekend. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public posted their fifth consecutive losing weekend, going 3-8. Over the last 5 weeks, the Public has posted a dismal 12-27 record. Games to Watch analysis continued to roll, posting another profitable weekend going 2-1. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 13-8 = 62%.

View last week’s column. *Source:

Looking Ahead to this Week

We anticipate Indy, New York Jets, Pittsburgh, and KC to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to remain strong in NFL Week 8. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from SEVEN online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 8 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

This is not the most exciting matchup this weekend but often there is value in taking the home team when both teams are under performing. Houston is coming off a big win over Jacksonville. We believe this has caused the odds makers to shade a full point towards Houston. Tennessee opened at -3 and has seen steady two-way Public action. We’ve circled this game because we believe Tennessee has significantly more talent, is better coached, and is playing at home. Only laying 3pts playing at home against a bad Houston team is solid value.

Tennessee Titians -3

Baltimore Ravens vs New Orleans Saints

A month ago, on Monday Night Football, the Saints had a blowout and emotional win at the then-newly-reopened New Orleans Superdome. Ever since that “coming-out party,” the Saints have been a big public team. This is playing out once again this week, with more than two-thirds of the bets coming in on the Saints.

The line opened at New Orleans –1, but public money on the Saints has driven the line up to –2.5. We believe that a tough Baltimore squad – that has given up just 69 points during its 4-2 start – will be hungry after two consecutive losses. Taking Baltimore +2.5, when that they have given up just over 10 points a game – looks like a good value. Baltimore is coming off a bye week and we expect McNair to be the starting QB.

Baltimore Ravens +2.5

Indy Colts vs Denver Broncos

The Colts and their high-powered offense continue to be a crowd-pleaser – and “bet magnet” – currently gathering 8 out of 10 bets this week. The line opened at Denver –2.5, with sharp money pushing the line to Denver –3. Public money has pushed the line to Denver –2 at some books, but heavy sharp action has kept the line at Denver –2.5 or Denver –3. “The sharps are more than offsetting the public bets pouring in on Indy,” explained 5Dimes line manager Lou.

Indy has proven weekly that it has difficulty stopping the run. Denver is a well-balanced team that is built upon (can you guess?): being able to run. We’ll side with the Sharp money and back the Broncos.

Denver Broncos -2.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 8.

Games to Watch (13-8)
Tennessee Titans –3
Baltimore Ravens +2.5
Denver Broncos –2.5

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio