NFL Marketwatch Week 7 2006-07

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 7
10/20/2006  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes,, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 7

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 6 saw yet another strong week for the sportsbooks – as the industry registered its fourth straight positive weekend, with most sportsbooks retaining a healthy 3%-5% of their handle. Perhaps we’re seeing a turnaround from last year’s strong year for NFL favorites.

Arizona’s collapse on Monday Night Football prevented perhaps the biggest upset of the year – but created one of the most popular video clips in recent sports history: Arizona Coach Dennis Green’s tirade about the Bears and Green’s podium-banging-tantrum. Arizona, almost a 2TD dog, led 23-3 late in the 3rd quarter. Chicago squeaked a win out – without the benefit of an offensive score!

The game broke up a ton of Teaser and Parlay action. “That Bears game was huge for us – and turned a good weekend into a great one,” said line manager Lou.

The Public had another down weekend. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public posted their fourth consecutive losing weekend going 2-4. Over the last 4 weeks, the Public has posted a dismal 9-19 record. Games to Watch analysis continued to roll, posting another profitable weekend going 2-1. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 11-7.

View last week’s column.


Looking Ahead to this Week

We anticipate San Diego, Philadelphia, Denver, and Arizona to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Handle sizes may decline slightly due to the public’s recent poor performance. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from SEVEN online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 7 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Tampa Bay Bucs vs Philadelphia Eagles

Tampa Bay has practically been a regular in our column. Last week, they not only covered the spread, but they won outright versus a strong, but disappointing Cincy squad. This, however, has NOT persuaded the public, with about 9 out of 10 wagers coming in on the Eagles this week.

The Bucs have been a good value this season, going 3-2 against the spread while their record is just 1-4 record. We look for this trend to continue as the season progresses. The Bucs, with their developing rookie QB, will show improvement this season – but will also hit some bumps along the road. However, we believe that the Bucs will be a good value until they put a string of actual (not just ATS) wins up.

The line opened at Phil –5 before early sharp money pushed the line to –4. Since that time, heavy public money has brought the line back to –5. We’re expecting heavy sharp action at +5.5 or +6 – and will grab the +5.5 on the Bucs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Diego Chargers

Readers of Sports Marketwatch know that we love to grab value – and that value seems to be magnified in divisional games. We don’t believe that the Chargers are as strong as their 4-1 record (and gaudy 151-55 Points For / Points Against) – currently indicates.

Similarly, KC is better than their 2-3 record suggests. The public is focusing on last week’s 45-7 drubbing the Chiefs took at the hands of some angry Pittsburgh Steelers. They are neglecting the fact that the Chiefs were competitive in defeat to Denver and Cincy – and have had one of the tougher NFL schedules.

The line opened at SD –6. However, even with a steady stream of public money coming in on SD, the line has now moved to –5. “We’re seeing sharp money on the Chiefs, more than offsetting the Public’s non-stop action on the Chargers this week,” explained 5Dimes line manager Lou. We’ll go with the Sharps and grab KC plus the +5.5 we still see at a few books. We see good value in a live HOME dog, in a big divisional game.

KC Chiefs +5.5

Washington Redskins vs Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts are undefeated at 5-0 – but they are not as strong as they were last year. Even so, the Colts are pulling in a lot of early Public bets for this week’s game against a solid Redskin team.

The Redskins are much more competitive than their 2-4 record suggests. Two of their losses have been by a FG. In addition, they beat a very strong Jacksonville squad outright just three weeks ago.

The line opened at Indy –10 and was beaten down to –9 fairly quickly by the sharps. The public likes the Colts, but sharp action is holding the line in the 9 to 9.5 range. As usual, our money is with the sharps; we’ll take the Skins +9.5.

Washington Redskins +9.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 7.

Games to Watch (11-7)
Tampa Bay +5.5
Kansas City +5.5
Washington +9.5

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio