NFL Marketwatch Week 5 2006-07

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 5
10/06/2006  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes,, and Oasisabout which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 5

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 4 continued the sportsbook industry’s positive momentum, with most sportsbooks retaining 1%-3% of their handle. “Two weeks ago it was Minnesota losing in the last minute that kept us from knocking out a lot of teasers. This week is was the New York Jets losing outright in the closing seconds that kept us from hitting a home run. We still won the side but every weekend it comes down to breaking up the junk (teasers),” explained line manager Steve Stone.

The Public had another down weekend. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public posted their second straight losing weekend, 3-5.’s Games to Watch analysis continued to roll, posting another profitable weekend going 2-1. Had Carolina not given up a cheap touchdown with seconds remaining, we would have swept the board. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 6-6.

View last week’s column. *Source:

Looking Ahead to this Week

We anticipate Indy, New England, New Orleans, and Kansas City to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to remain strong as betting accounts are still flush with profits from Week 1 and 2. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from SEVEN online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 5 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints have been the biggest surprise of the season so far. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are heading in the other direction – and are arguably one of the biggest disappointments this season. Now factor in the fact that their starting QB Simms is out – and is being replaced by a rookie – and the situation looks even grimmer. But in every cloud there is a silver lining!

We circled this game for the line value associated with “buying on bad news” coupled with early Sharp action coming in on Tampa Bay. CRIS opened at -6.5 then quickly moved to –7. However, heavy Sharp action on Tampa Bay +7 pushed the line back to 6.5 and 6. “We opened at -6 and immediately saw a steady stream of New Orleans bets. They’ve been a public team ever since that Monday Night game. I’d say well over 80% of the bets are on New Orleans but we had some Sharps come in and push the line back to -6.5”, explained 5Dimes manager Lou.

An underachieving Tampa Bay squad is coming off a bye week that greatly benefits their rookie QB (as he receives even more practice). The bye week also allows them to regroup and refocus. We like the value in Tampa Bay +7 coming off a bye week, plus heavy Sharp action on Tampa Bay. As always, we follow the Sharps!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +-7

Kansas City Chiefs vs Arizona Cardinals

Kansas City got back on track against arguably the worst team in the NFL: San Fran. Arizona went from playoffs hopes to a “let’s just survive” attitude in the span of 4 weeks. They’ve officially replaced veteran QB Warner with rookie QB Leinart. It looks as if Arizona might not win another game this year. There is an old saying; “The night is always darkest just before the dawn.”

Readers of the Sports Marketwatch know first hand it goes against human nature – rooting for bad teams to do good things. But it’s exactly this human tendency: to bet on favorites, that we exploit and allows us to make a CONSISTENT living. We believe this line is shaded 2-2.5pts, and getting that kind of value means you’ll be cashing in more winners than losers.

We’re looking for rookie Leinart to be the spark that lights the hometown crowd. There are plenty of +3.5’s and +4’s on the board. We’re taking the +4 and looking for Arizona to turn it around.

Arizona Cardinals +4

Cleveland Browns vs Carolina Panthers

The Cleveland Browns showed some heart last week rallying from 18pts down to win their first game of the season. Yes, it was against winless Oakland but Cleveland could have easily folded. It’s wins like these that help instill confidence in a struggling team. Once they believe they can win, they will win. We circled this game because of the strong Sharp action coming in on Cleveland +9. CRIS and Pinnacle both opened up at Carolina -9, and quickly moved to Carolina -8. There are still a couple of 8.5’s and 9’s on the board. We’re locking in good value at +9 and putting our money with the Sharps.

Cleveland Browns +9

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 5.

Games to Watch (6-6)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7
Arizona Cardinals +4
Cleveland Browns +9

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch information handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio