NFL Marketwatch Week 4 2006-07

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 4
9/29/2006  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes,, and Oasisabout which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first five weeks of the season have produced a lot of surprises.Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 4

Recapping Last Week

The pendulum swung the sportsbook’s way.  Favorable outcomes in the Sunday Night and Monday Night’s games ensured a positive weekend. All sportsbooks reported a profitable NFL Week 3.  “Had Minnesota won outright it would have been a lot sweeter, but at this point we’re just glad we finally stopped the bleeding,” explained line manager Steve Stone.

The Public’s bread and butter teams, Chicago, Baltimore, and Carolina all stumbled. Not good if you’re loading up on favorites.  However, Teaser bettors managed to pull a couple of games out of their hats with some late fourth quarter scoring drives. “A couple of our big games landed close to the line which means a lot of Teaser bets ended up hitting,” reports line manager Lou. “We managed to hold a little over 2% of our handle. Nothing to write home about, but a positive Sunday at this point is a good thing.” analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public posted their first losing weekend, 3-6. Games to Watch analysis posted a profitable weekend going 2-1, and looks to carry this positive momentum into Week 4. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 4-5.  View last week’s column. *Source:

Looking Ahead to this Week

We anticipate Indy, Baltimore, New Orleans, and Jacksonville to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to remain strong as betting accounts are still flush with profits from Week 1 and 2.  Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from SEVEN online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 4 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers

There is nothing like a big win on Monday night to get the Public behind a team. New Orleans looked unstoppable; maybe even a playoff team. They shut down a talented Atlanta offense and rode the Superdome-filled “Katrina” energy to an impressive victory. The line opened at Carolina -8 and -7.5, with most books retreating to Carolina -7 due to the large influx of New Orleans money.

Very rarely will you see the Games to Watch include a home favorite. It probably only happens a couple of times a season. But a lot of indicators point towards value in Carolina laying -7.  We circle this game because the Saints getting +7 is just too easy. A short week for The Saints after an emotional Monday Night game, are the ingredients for a let down. We like the value in Carolina -7 at home and look for them to overpower an emotionally and physically-drained New Orleans squad

Carolina  -7  Bet at Pinnacle Carolina -7 -103

Indianapolis Colts vs New York Jets

Long time readers of the Sports Marketwatch probably saw this one coming. How could we resist a +10 home dog? The New York Jets are a decent squad that has a lot of upside. The question is whether they can put it together for 4 quarters. If they do, they can compete with any team in the NFL. We like the direction and attitude first year coach Eric Mangini has brought to the Jets, and the fact the line has moved 2.5 points since it opened. There are plenty of +9.5’s and +10’s on the board. We’re taking the +10 and looking for the Jets to put it all together.

New York Jets +10  Bet at New York Jets +10

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals

How the mighty have fallen! The once invincible New England Patriots looked like a bunch of worn-out has-beens on National TV in last Sunday Night’s loss to Denver. We always look for value and this line has the most of any game this weekend. The Patriots are a well-coached team with team leaders at key positions. They may not have Deon Branch and Adam Vinatieri, but they still have Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and Teddy Bruschi.

The Pats will bounce back in Week 4, showing the league they can still play. The line opened at -4 and quickly moved to -6 where Public money on Cincy pushed it to -6.5. A lot of sportsbooks reported taking “Sharp buy-back action” on the Pats +6.5. The line has crept back to Cincy -6.5 at a couple of sportsbooks. We don’t believe the line will move to -7 before kick-off. If anything it’ll move to -6. We’re locking in good value at +6.5 and putting our money with the Sharps.

New England +6.5  Bet at Bowmans New England +6.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 4.

Games to Watch  (4-5)
Carolina -7
New York Jets +10
New England +6.5

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch. Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio