Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 2
9/15/2006 11:15 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace! Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, BetUs.com, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first five weeks of the season have produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 2
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 1 looked like some teams weren’t ready for the season to begin. As usual, there were surprises. For the first time in years, Green Bay was shut out at home! This marked the first time in his career that Brett Favre was shut out. This could be a long season for “The Pack.”
In other action, neither Seattle nor Detroit could muster 10 points, let alone a TD – but this DID result in a Sports Marketwatch win (Detroit +7). Our third pick, KC, did manage to score 10 pts, but got blown out by Cincy 23-10.
In other games, New England needed the second half before it was ready for the NFL season to begin. Overall, Week 1 was disappointing, with Marketwatch’s highlighted games going 1-2. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public posted a losing effort, 5-6.
For the season, SportsInsights.com Sports Marketwatch “Games to Watch” is: 1-2= 33.3%.
SportsInsights.com Sports Marketwatch 2005 NFL Season: 33-25 = 56.9%
View last week’s column.
This Week’s NFL Action
This week, we’re hoping that “our dogs” are awake and ready for some action. In our last article, we mentioned four major criteria we use to judge line value. These factors are so important to getting an edge that we wanted to highlight them again:
• Public overwhelmingly on one side
• Home dog
• Drastic line movement caused by Public money
• Negative press
We anticipate Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week.
NFL Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Houston Texans +14 vs Indianapolis Colts
Last Sunday’s Colts-Giants game was one of most anticipated games of this early NFL season. Two Superbowl contenders… “Little Brother” vs. “Big Brother”… You couldn’t ask for much more excitement. The game lived up to its billing – and the Colts’ victory ensured that the Public would be riding them for a while.
Currently, an amazing 85%-90% of the bets are coming in on the Colts for this week’s game. Even so, the line, which opened at –14 has slipped to -13.5 at most books. According to some of the Line Managers I’ve spoken to, sharp money on Houston is more than offsetting the Public’s bets that are pouring in on the Colts. Two TDs is a heavy load early in the season. Our money is with the sharps!
Green Bay +3 vs. New Orleans Saints
Earlier, we said that this could be a long season for the Packers. The Public definitely thinks so, with about 80% of the bets coming in on the Saints. On the other hand, while the Packers may have another 12-loss season like they did in 2005, we DON’T think they will lose 12 vs. the spread this year.
Favre has definitely seen better days, but he’s still a good QB. Old, fading, stars are often similar to young, rising stars: they are very inconsistent. Favre will have his 3 or 4 INT games, but he (or his protégé) will also have his share of 3 or 4 TD games. With a second chance in front of a home crowd, we’ll take the side of the sportsbooks and take the Pack.
As a side note, although the Packers were 4-12 last year, they were outscored just 298-344 during the season. The Saints, although vastly improved with Reggie Bush, were outscored last year 235-398, during their 3-13 season. Reggie Bush had a nice start, gaining 141 yards in total offense – but could ALSO be inconsistent.
The game opened at Even and has moved to New Orleans –3! We’re looking to buy the Packers low, sell the Saints high – and are taking the +3 Bowman’s is offering.
Green Bay +3
Jacksonville Jaguars +2 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers, like the Colts, have a huge Public following. That’s what you get for winning the Superbowl. In addition, Pittsburgh’s big win over Miami (a pre-season Superbowl pick by many analysts) – even without Big Ben – has the Public drooling over the Steelers.
This should be a great Monday Night Football matchup between two NFL powerhouses. Pittsburgh, well, is Pittsburgh. Jacksonville, meanwhile, quietly went 12-4 during the regular season last year. The Public has pushed the line from Jax –2 to Jax +2 – and it’s not even the weekend yet. The line COULD possibly move up to a field goal. In any case, we look for Jacksonville to make some noise as a Monday Night Home Dog.
So, here’s a wrap-up of Sports Insights analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 2.
Games to Watch (1-2)
Green Bay +3
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to Sports Insights for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!