NFL Marketwatch Week 11 2006-07

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 11
11/17/2006  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes,, and Oasisabout which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 11

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 10 brought the sportsbook industry’s string of consecutive profitable Sundays to 8. The sportsbooks haven’t had a losing weekend since Week 2. Most sportsbooks are reporting holding between 5%-6% of their handle. “The rich just keep getting richer,” jokingly remarked 5Dimes line manager Louie. “The previous two NFL seasons have been brutal for the books, so it’s nice to see a little money come our way.”

This season has seen it share of surprises: 14 pt underdogs winning by 14, field goals being run back, and many others. The number of underdogs covering or winning outright has been astonishing. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public posted their EIGHTH consecutive losing weekend, going 1-7. The Public is getting pounded. What used to be easy (picking favorites and overs) has turned into a nightmare. Over the last 8 weeks, the Public has posted a dismal 16-45 record…ouch! Games to Watch analysis continues to roll, posting another profitable weekend, going 2-1. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 19-11 = 63.3%. And yes, we do accept donations!

View last week’s column. *Source:

Looking Ahead to this Week

We anticipate Indy, Cincinnati, New England, and KC to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to continue their spiral downwards. The Public is losing faith they can ever win. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from five online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 11 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Indianapolis Colts vs Dallas Cowboys

Dallas has made a believer out of us. After their heart-wrenching loss to Washington in Week 9, they could have easily packed it in and started pointing fingers. But they didn’t. Instead, they played a solid 4 quarters against Arizona. Dallas has turned the corner. They are a team that believes it can win behind the arm of Tony “The Flash” Romo. We circled this game for multiple reasons. First, the value in Dallas at home, getting +1.5. The blueprint on how to beat Indy is out there – run the ball, defend the outside and deep ball, and force Peyton to throw underneath. Dallas is a well-coached team. Parcells will have his team focused and prepared to win on Sunday. All sportsbooks report taking heavy one way Public action on Indy, with reports of Sharp Action on Dallas +1 and +1.5.

Dallas Cowboys +1.5

New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers

The student becomes the teacher…and “school was in” last week for the New England Patriots. The New York Jets rookie head coach Eric Mangini, a Belichick disciple, handed his old boss a big “L.” Two weeks ago all the Media would talk about is how the Patriots were going to another Super Bowl. Now they’re in danger of losing their third straight game. How quickly things change in the NFL.

We circled this game for the Home Dog value. Green Bay is a much-improved team. The early Public money on the Patriots has pushed this game to 6. Our money is with a rejuvenated Bret Favre, whose team has won 3 out of their last 4 games.

Green Bay Packers +6

Chicago Bears vs New York Jets

The New York Jets are coming off their biggest win of the season, beating New England on the road. The Jets are a team on a roll, winning three out of their last four — and they are suddenly back in the playoff picture. Yes, Chicago is a good team, but they can be beaten. If the Jets can get pressure on Bears QB Rex Grossman, he’ll start forcing balls. We circled this game for the Home Dog value in Jets +7. The Jets are a solid squad that has elevated its play to a playoff caliber team.

New York Jets +7

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 11.

Games to Watch (19-11)
Dallas Cowboys +1.5
Green Bay Packers +6
New York Jets +7

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio