NFL Marketwatch Week 10 2006-07

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 10
11/10/2006  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes,, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.

Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 10

Recapping Last Week

November picked right up where October left off. NFL Week 10 continued the sports betting industry’s march to the most profitable NFL season on record with most sportsbook retaining 6%-8% of their handle. “This season really made up for last year’s dismal showing for the house,” stated 5Dimes line manager Louie. Do we even have to tell you what the biggest game of the weekend was? The Chicago Bears have been extremely cruel to the betting Public. One week they blow a team by 30pts. The next week they “barely” beat a miserable Arizona team on MNF. Last week, as two touchdown favorites, Chicago lost outright at home to a 1-6 Miami Dolphins team. “If you placed a teaser bet last week, you had Chicago in it,” explained Bowmans line manager Steve Kaminsky. “That game by itself wiped out the majority of the teaser junk.”

The Public had another down weekend. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public posted their SEVENTH consecutive losing weekend, going 0-7. The Public at this point, has no idea what to bet on. Over the last 7 weeks, the Public has posted a dismal 15-38 record…ouch! Games to Watch analysis continues to roll, posting another profitable weekend, going 2-1. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 17-10 = 63%.

View last week’s column. *Source:

Looking Ahead to this Week
We anticipate Baltimore, KC, Indy, and Dallas to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to be down, as the Public has no idea where to turn. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from five online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 10 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins

Kansas City is riding high. KC’s running back Larry Johnson has run all over their last three opponents, which is good news. The bad news is that the Public has finally noticed. We circled this game because of the interesting line movement and early sharp money on Miami. “We opened at KC -2 and wrote a lot of KC bets.” Stated 5Dimes line manager Louie. “But a couple of our big accounts came in and pounded Miami +2 and +1, so much that we’ve moved to a pick’em.”

Miami is coming off their biggest win in years – in what will most likely be the biggest upset of the season. Miami is a well-coached team with decent talent and a solid defense that now believes it can win. QB Joe Harrington must improve his efficiency and cut down on INTs. Playing at home will help. We’re looking for Miami to mimic last year’s mid-season turnaround in which they won their last 6 straight games.

We believe there is still value in Miami +1.5, but we are hoping to see some +2’s on the board before game time – as the Public money pushes the line back towards KC. Our money is with the early Sharp action on Miami, and we look for Miami to build on last week’s defensive masterpiece.

Miami Dolphins +1.5

Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders

We circled this game for the Home Dog value. Anytime you can get +9.5 at home, it’s a “no brainer.” Oakland historically plays Denver tough. They may not win but they keep it close. We’re hoping to see a +10 before kick off, but believe there is a lot of value in +9.5. Oakland has won 2 out of their last 3. Last week’s loss to Seattle on MNF was a set back – but look for them to improve this week and give Denver all they can handle. Our money is with Oakland at home getting +9.5

Oakland Raiders +9.5

Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals

Dallas imploded last week and lost in unbelievable fashion. Losses like that ruin a team’s moral for weeks to come. WR T. Owens has become more and more of a distraction every week. His pursuit of personal attention and touchdown dances – cost his team dearly last Sunday. The media continues to paint Tony “The Flash” Romo as the next Troy Aikman. We’ll admit he looked solid against Washington in just his second outing –
but he still has a lot to prove and learn. The NFL is a cruel league. One week you’re on top and the next week you’re looking up from the bottom. We believe an under- performing Arizona Cardinals team getting +7 at home is a solid value. We’re taking the points and looking for Tony “The Flash” to start forcing a lot of bad balls.

Arizona Cardinals +7

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 10.

Games to Watch (17-10)
Miami Dolphins +1.5
Oakland Raiders +9.5
Arizona Cardinals +7

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio