NFL Marketwatch Week 9 2005-06

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 9
11/3/2005  3:15 PM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first five weeks of the season have produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 9

NFL Week 8 Recap
NFL Week 8 had all the makings for a stellar Sunday for the Public, lots of mismatched teams, and key football numbers to tease. Handle sizes reflected this, growing by over 10%. But even the sure things, weren’t so “sure” in Week 8.

“They (the public) teased the hell out of Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh,” said 5Dimes line manager. All of those teams failing to cover straight bets and teaser bets was the driving force behind a profitable Sunday, and a monstrous Monday Night game for the books. “Sunday was a good day,” said Scott Kaminsky line manager for Bowmans, “but Monday night was our biggest game of the year.” This sentiment was echoed around the sports betting industry. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side the Public posted another losing record 1-4. That makes 8 straight losing weekends for the Public. Yes, 8 straight losing weekends for the Public! Games to Watch analysis posted another winning weekend with a 2-1 record for NFL Week 8. For the season, that makes Games to Watch 21-10= 68%.
View last week’s column.

NFL Week 9 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
With all those teasers losing last week, handle sizes will be slightly off this week. The public teams continue to be San Diego, Carolina, Seattle, and of course, Indy. This week’s surprise Public team is Atlanta.

The theme of this week’s column is home cooking. Bad teams playing at home tend to play with a little more heart. This week offers a couple of excellent examples of home field advantage. Let’s see what NFL Week 9 has in store.

San Diego vs New York Jets
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The Public can’t get enough of L-Train and the Chargers. “We did get some Sharp buy back at 6.5, but the San Diego game will be one of our biggest games of the week”, informs Scott Kaminsky, line manager for Bowmans.” Most books opened at 5.5 and quickly retreated to 6 and 6.5. I’m even seeing a 7 at 5Dimes if you’re willing to lay 7 -120. I anticipate the Public money pushing this line to 6.5-7 by kickoff.

New York Jets +7

New York Giants vs San Fran
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The Giants are coming off a 36-0 trouncing of a pretty decent Washington Redskins squad. Now they take their show on the road and play the rejuvenated San Fran 49ers. San Fran is coming off their biggest win in years. Already Public action has pushed this game from NYG -9.5 to -11.5. The media fueling hype around Eli Manning as the second coming of God has helped distort the Public perception. Eli, the day of reckoning is almost at hand!

“We opened at 10 and immediately saw a flood of Giants money,” said Scott from Bowmans. “We’ve quickly moved to 10.5, and then 11.” The Public money continues to pour in on NYG.

I fully expect to see 12 on the board before kick. I’d wait to bet this game late on Sunday. The general feeling on the sportsbook side is the Sharp buy back will come on Sunday when the game hits 12 or 12.5. At the time of the writing of this article, I’m showing offering an 11.5. I’ll take it.

San Fran +11.5

Seattle vs Arizona
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I talked with Steve Stone, line manger at Oasis, who said, “We opened at 4.5 and the Public ate it up. I’d say in the first 12 hours we only wrote tickets for Seattle. Then whamo, we had a couple of Sharp accounts take Arizona +4.5 pushing us down to 4.”

With the large amount of Public action Seattle is generating, I’d be surprised if this game didn’t move back to 4.5 or even 5.5 by game time. As always our money is with the Sharps, but I’d wait to Sunday to bet this game. At the time of the writing of this article, I’m seeing only 4 available.

Play on Arizona +4

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 9.

Games to Watch (21-10)
New York Jets +7
San Fran +11.5
Arizona +4

It should be another wild NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketplace picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday to update you on the latest line movements directly from the top online sportsbooks.

Daniel Fabrizio