by The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2010-11 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!
Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.
Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 3
Recapping Week 2
Marketwatch took a tough loss in our first game last week. Army, down 21-0 in the first half, stormed back to a 28-28 tie late in the fourth quarter. The Black Knights, giving 2.5 points, had the ball on the Hawaii 27-yard line with less than 30 seconds remaining in the game. Army looked poised to kick a game-winning, and spread-covering, field goal, until quarterback Max Jenkins fumbled, giving Hawaii the ball. The Warriors needed less than 20 seconds to drive deep into Army territory and kick the deciding field goal, beating the Black Knights 31-28.
Marketwatch scored its lone victory of the day behind Kent State’s 13-point loss to Boston College. The Golden Flashes totaled a whopping four yards on the ground, but were able to score enough to beat the 17.5-point spread.
For the second straight week, Marketwatch took a 1-1 record into our third game. Unfortunately, North Texas could not hang onto a 5-point fourth quarter lead against Rice, putting us at 1-2 for the week and 3-3 for the season.
Overall Record = 3-3 (50%)
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
NCAA Sports Marketwatch Week 3 – Games to Watch
Iowa State vs. Kansas State (9/18 – 12:00 p.m ET)
Iowa State had trouble holding onto the football, turning it over three times in last week’s 35-7 loss to #9 Iowa. Their opponent, Kansas State, had the offense rolling against Missouri State, racking up 493 yards en route to a 48-24 win.
Kansas State opened as a 5.5-point home favorite at CRIS and is a massive public favorite. Eighty-five percent of spread bets have fallen on the Wildcats, yet the line has shrunk two full points to -3.5. This significant reverse-line movement is a key indicator that sharp money is backing the road dog and Sports Insights’ Betting Systems fully agree. One positive Steam Move and five positive Smart Money Plays, including one at Pinnacle (+5.28 units), our number #1 ranked Smart Money sportsbook, have been triggered on Iowa State.
The majority of sportsbooks are offering Iowa State at +3.5, but there are still a good number at a full 4. To kickoff Week 3, we’ll fade a huge public favorite, follow the Smart Money and take Iowa State and the points.
Iowa State +4
Nebraska vs. Washington (9/18 – 3:30 p.m ET)
Nebraska used a strong second quarter Saturday to put away Idaho and pick-up their second win of the season. The Cornhuskers rolled up a stunning 360 yards on the ground in the 38-17 victory.
Behind stud quarterback Jake Locker, Washington bounced back from a season-opening loss to BYU with 21-point victory over Syracuse. Locker was his usual, efficient self, needing only 22 completions to rack up 289 yards and four touchdowns.
Nebraska opened as a 4-point favorite at CRIS and is currently garnering 82% of spread bets. This would normally cause the line to grow, yet the line has dropped to -3, where it currently sits at CRIS. Five positive Smart Money Plays, including one at Pinnacle (+5.28 units), and one Steam Move at Legendz (+5.2 units) have been triggered on Washington. There are only a couple of sportsbooks offering the Huskies at +3.5, so do some line shopping and grab this game off the key number of 3.
Mississippi State vs. LSU (9/18 – 7:00 p.m. ET)
Mississippi State will be looking to rebound this week after a tough home loss to Auburn. The Bulldogs kept it close all game, but were shutout in the fourth quarter, ultimately losing 17-14.
LSU hammered Vanderbilt at home Saturday, holding the Commodores to 135 total yards and three points in the 24-point victory.
LSU opened as a 9.5-point favorite at CRIS and is currently receiving significant public support. Sixty-three percent of spread wagers are backing the Tigers, yet Sports Insights’ Betting Systems have found value on the Bulldogs. One positive Smart Money Play and two positive Steam Moves have been triggered on Mississippi State, giving us the confidence to take the road underdog and the points.
Mississippi State +8
Sports Insights Blog
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So, here’s a wrap-up of Sports Insights’ analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 3.
Games to Watch (3-3)
Iowa State +4
Mississippi State +8
It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at Sports Insights
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