by The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2010-11 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!
Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.
Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 10
Recapping Week 9
With NC State’s win over Florida State last week, Marketwatch improved to 11-10 on the season. The Wolfpack trailed by 14 points at halftime, but quarterback Russell Wilson led the way in the second half, rushing for two quick third quarter touchdowns in NC State’s 4-point comeback victory.
Overall Record = 11-10 (52.4%)
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
NCAA Sports Marketwatch Week 10 – Game to Watch
Missouri vs. Texas Tech (11/6 – 7:00 p.m. ET)
Coming off their emotional win over then #1-ranked Oklahoma, Missouri showed up flat for last week’s game against Nebraska. Missouri simply had no answer for Roy Helu Jr., who racked up a ridiculous 307 yards and three touchdowns in the 31-17 win for the Cornhuskers.
While Missouri’s defense got shredded on the ground against Nebraska, Texas Tech’s pass defense got lit up in their most recent game, a 45-27 loss to Texas A&M. The Red Raiders gave up a whopping 623 total yards, 449 of which came through the air.
Missouri opened as a 6.5-point favorite at CRIS and is currently receiving a staggering 85% of spread bets. This is one of the most lopsided games, in terms of spread betting percentages, of the week, which makes it even more startling to see the line actually drop 2 points to -4.5.
This significant reverse-line movement is a clear indicator big bets are backing the Red Raiders and Sports Insights’ Betting Systems have taken notice. Three positive Smart Money Plays have been triggered on Texas Tech, including one at WSEX (+9.27 units). If the betting percentages remain this one-sided, this game is also a strong candidate to be one ourNCAA Football Square Plays, which are currently 32-14 (+15.58 units) on the season.
This week we’re fading a massive public favorite, following the Smart Money and taking Texas Tech, at home, and the points.
Texas Tech +4.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of Sports Insights’ analysis of this week’s Game to Watch for NCAA Football Week 10.
Game to Watch (11-10)
Texas Tech +4.5
It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch handy and your browser pointed to Sports Insights for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at Sports Insights