NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 9 2009

by The Team at

Welcome to the 2009-10 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!

Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.

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Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 9

Recapping Week 8

Marketwatch returned to its winning ways Saturday, hitting two out of three for the week. Miami (OH) quarterback Zac Dysert got us off to a great start, throwing a 24-yard touchdown pass to Armand Robinson with no time left on the clock, turning a would-be push into a big win for Marketwatch. Clemson, getting 5.5 points, defeated Miami outright after Kyle Parker connected with Jacoby Ford for a 26-yard game-winning touchdown in overtime. Spoiling any hopes of a 3-0 week for Marketwatch, Kentucky jumped to an early 21-0 lead over Louisiana-Monroe (ULM). ULM got to within 15 points early in the fourth quarter, but a Kentucky safety, followed by a Wildcats touchdown put the game, and the 14.5-point spread, out of reach.

Overall Record = 13-11 (54.2%)

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 9 – Games to Watch

Mississippi vs. Auburn (10/31 – 12:20 p.m. EST)

After jumping out to a 5-0 record, many of college football’s talking heads anointed the Tigers as the team who would challenge Alabama in the SEC West for a shot at the conference title. Three losses later, the unranked Tigers have gone from trendy SEC sleeper to home underdog against Ole Miss.

Mississippi opened as 4.5-point favorite at Olympic and are currently garnering 73% of spread bets, 75% of moneyline bets and 77% of parlay bets, proving the college football “experts” aren’t the only people jumping off the Auburn bandwagon. Even though the public, as well as the national media, seems to have written off the Tigers, sharp money has pounded this game, producing multiple Smart Money Plays on Auburn, including one from Matchbook (+10.23 units) and another from Catalina/VegasVic (+7.49 units). Steam Moves from Pinnacle (+3.3 units) and ThePig (+7.4 units) have also been triggered, further convincing us that the death of the 2009 Auburn Tigers may be a bit premature.

Auburn +4.5

Georgia vs. Florida (10/31 – 3:30 p.m. EST)

Tomorrow is the last Saturday in October, meaning it’s time to throw on your costumes, set your clocks back an hour, and get ready for the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party; or as the NCAA wants us to call it, “The Georgia-Florida Game.” The undefeated Gators come into this game as a favorite among Harris Poll voters, as well as SEC referees. Georgia took a pounding in Knoxville a few weeks ago, but bounced back with a 24-point win against Vandy. More importantly, Florida is coming off a dogfight (no pun intended) against Mississippi State, while the Dawgs were off Saturday, giving them two weeks to rest, prepare and be reminded of the 49-10 beating they took one year ago.

The Gators opened as a 16-point favorite at CRIS and the public is split down the middle on this game. Even though exactly 50% of spread bets are backing Florida, the line has shrunk to -14.5. This line movement suggests there is some sharp money behind Georgia. We also like that the Bulldogs are coming off a bye, and although Florida is listed as the home team, this game is played on a neutral field in Jacksonville. SportsInsights’ Betting Systems have triggered one move on the Cocktail Party, a Steam Move on Georgia at Bet365 (+1.0 unit). Although it’s not a huge move, it’s one more reason to take the points and back the Dawgs. There are still a couple of sportsbooks offering Georgia at +15, so go ahead and grab it at that number.

Georgia +15 (WSEX)

Arkansas State vs. Louisville (10/31 – 3:30 p.m. EST)

Behind 276 yards rushing, Arkansas State notched its second victory of the season last week, rolling over Florida International 27-10. Louisville got hammered by Big East rival Cincinnati 41-10, allowing Bearcats quarterback Zach Collaros to throw for 253 yards and three touchdowns on only 17 pass attempts.

Louisville opened as a 4.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and are a huge public favorite, receiving 78% of spread bets. This one-sided betting should have caused the line to increase, yet it has shrunk to -2.5. This line movement has triggered multiple plays on Arkansas State from SportsInsights Betting Systems, including two separate Steam Moves from 5Dimes (+21.1 units) and one more from The Pig (+7.4). We’ll follow the sharp money, as well as the almighty 5Dimes Steam Moves, and go with Red Wolves getting three points.

Arkansas State +3

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights’ analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 9.

Games to Watch (13-11)
Auburn +4.5
Georgia +15 (WSEX)
Arkansas State +3

It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at Sports Insights