NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 6 2009

10/9/2009
by The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2009-10 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!

Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.

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Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 6

Recapping Week 5

On Saturday, Marketwatch hit its first bump in the road, missing all three picks.  Washington and Notre Dame traded blows the entire game, ultimately needing overtime to decide it.  The Fighting Irish took the victory by seven, but the cover never looked likely.  Georgia overcame a putrid first half by quarterback Joe Cox to take a late one-point lead over LSU.  Our desperate hopes for a pick-6 to cover were dashed when big Charles Scott burst through the line and took it 33 yards to paydirt, sealing the victory for the Tigers.  In the late game, Auburn surprised many by scoring with ease against Tennessee’s NFL-talent-laden defense.  The Vols made a late surge, but even 16 points in the final quarter saw them come up short, losing 26-22.

Overall Record = 8-7 (53.3%)

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 6 – Games to Watch

Auburn vs. Arkansas (10/10 – 12:00 p.m. EST)

You’re reading it right; we’re still not believers in Gene Chizik’s new-look Auburn Tigers.  Did they go into a hostile environment and beat up on a much-ballyhooed Tennessee defense?  They did.  But it’s easy to forget that Tennessee has gotten most of its publicity this year because of its new coach’s snarky remarks, not because of results.  If the public wants to overvalue this primetime victory because of all the media attention surrounding Lane Kiffin’s orange and wife – err, white – we don’t mind at all.

That may very well be the case.  The Tigers, who travel to Fayetteville this week to take on the Razorbacks, opened as 3-point favorites at Pinnacle.  Sportswriters have been all over Auburn’s story this week, noting that they finally feel respected after cracking the polls at #17.  These headlines have probably also obscured the fact that they’ve trailed in every game but their last, as Auburn is getting 68% of bets on the spread and 68% of parlays.  In spite of this strong public support, the line has dropped to -2.5 at Pinnacle as well as -2 at other books.  Sports Insights Betting Systems are hammering this game, with four Smart Money moves on Arkansas (including BetOnline, +6.82 Units Won).  Our best early performer, 5Dimes Steam Moves, has also made an appearance.  They’re already up 20.4 Units on the young college football season, so we’ll bet this one with confidence.

Arkansas +3 (Bodog)

Connecticut vs. Pittsburgh (10/10 – 3:30 p.m. EST)

What passes for elite in Big East football may be a bit misleading, but it looks like there’s going to be some serious competition at the top of the conference this season.  Cincinnati and South Florida have cracked the Top 25, and whichever team wins this match-up will have a solid argument as well.  Connecticut’s only loss of the season came against North Carolina, a game determined by an offensive holding call in the end zone, resulting in a safety.  Pittsburgh fell short at NC State but does have an impressive 27-14 victory over the Navy’s triple-option attack under their belt.

Pittsburgh opened as a 10.5-point favorite at CRIS and has received 55% of spread bets.  Additionally, 78% of parlay bets are falling on the Panthers, but the line has not grown as one might expect.  The reverse line movement in this game is significant, dropping at least 3 points across the board.   Pitt is now -7 at CRIS and can be found as low as -6.5.  Sharp money surely is falling on the Huskies, and we have evidence of it in another 5Dimes Steam Move (+20.4 Units Won).

Connecticut +7

Oregon vs. UCLA (10/10 – 3:30 p.m EST)

Oregon has been an awfully confusing team this season.  They opened with a primetime loss to Boise State, after which their star running back leveled an opposing player with a mean right cross.  Since then, they’ve been more and more impressive in each game, particularly two weeks ago in a 42-3 dismantling of then #6 California.  To make matters more baffling, the Ducks’ quarterback Jeremiah Masoli missed Monday and Tuesday’s practice, was limited Wednesday, and visited doctors again on Thursday to examine his injured right knee.  He insists he’ll play.  On the flip side, UCLA quarterback Kevin Prince rejoined practice this week after breaking his jaw against Tennessee in Week 2 and having it wired shut.  Reports have had him on a diet on blended beans, spinach, rice and salsa (we were dying to know as well), and he looks ready to go against the Pac-10 leading Ducks.

Did we mention befuddling?  Yet these are the games for which Sports Insights Betting Systems were made.  Market analysis has proven time and again to be more dependable and accessible than poring over statistics and match-ups.  Games like this allow us to get out of our own way and invest, rather than gamble.  Oregon opened as a 6.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and has taken a strong 70% of spread bets as well as 85% of parlays.  You’d think the sportsbooks would want to encourage some action on UCLA by giving them more points, right?  Instead, the line has dropped precipitously, down to -3.5 at Pinnacle and -3 at other books.  We’ve seen 5 Smart Money plays on UCLA triggered by profitable sportsbooks, including CRIS (+12.6 Units Won).  And to complete the trifecta, you know what’s coming… a 5Dimes Steam Move (+20.4 Units Won).

UCLA +3.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights’ analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 6.

Games to Watch (8-7)
Arkansas +3 (Bodog)
Connecticut +7

UCLA +3.5

It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at Sports Insights
SportsInsights.com

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