NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 4 2009

by The Team at

Welcome to the2009-10 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch.The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insightinto the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to knowwhat was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have anall-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!

Every week we speakdirectly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’slargest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and theSharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this weekin College Football.

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Sports Marketplace – NCAA Week 4

Recapping Week 3

Middle Tennessee State forced four turnovers in its win over Maryland, whileTennessee took advantage of an apparent “swine flu outbreak” to keep Floridaclose, giving Marketwatch two victories last week. Our one loss came at thehands of Miami (FL) and Jacory Harris, who went off against Georgia Tech.

Overall Record = 6-3 (66.7%)

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatchcolumn: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice runningthrough your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture tocalm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight gamesthat offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true,there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value.You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through.We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 4 – Games to Watch

Wake Forest vs. Boston College (9/26 – 2 p.m. EST)

Boston College struggled in its conference opener Saturday, totaling ameasly 54 yards of offense against Clemson in the 25-7 loss. Wake Forest beat upon FCS opponent Elon 35-7 to improve their record to 2-1 on the season.

Boston College opened as a 3-point home favorite at CRIS and has shrunk to a1.5-point favorite. The public likes the Eagles, who are receiving 54% of spreadbets and 61% of parlay bets. There has been significantline movement in this game, triggering five Steam Moves. Four of these moves areon Boston College, but each one on the Eagles is from a sportsbook with a losing record on theseason. One positive Steam Move has been triggered at 5Dimes (32-21, +7.9 units),playing on Wake Forest. We’ll go against the negative Steam Moves andfollow 5Dimes. Give us Wake and the points.

Wake Forest +1.5 

Miami (FL) vs. Virginia Tech (9/26 -3:30 p.m. EST)

Last week’s 33-17 win against Georgia Tech was Miami’s second straight victoryagainst a Top 25 opponent. Quarterback Jacory Harris, who currently ranks 3rd inthe nation in quarterback rating, has come out of nowhere to thrust himself intothe early Heisman Trophy discussion. Virginia Tech is coming off a dramatic16-15 victory over Nebraska, in which Tyrod Taylor hooked up with Dyrell Robertsfor an 11-yard touchdown with 21 seconds remaining in the comeback victory.

Virginia Tech opened as a 1-point favorite at CRIS and one-sided publicbetting has moved the line to Miami -2.5. The Hurricanes are garnering 73% ofspread bets, 66% of moneyline bets and 69% of parlay bets, causing thesignificant line movement. Six positive Smart Money Plays have been triggeredon Virginia Tech, including one at Phoenix (13-6, +6.49 units). Marketwatch wentagainst Miami last week and lost. However, we like Frank Beamer’s Hokies at home andhave confidence going with the Smart Money.

Virginia Tech +3

Washington vs. Stanford (9/26 – 9 p.m EST)

Erik Folk’s 22-yard field goal, with three seconds left, gave Washingtonandhead coach Steve Sarkisian a stunning 16-13 upset victory over thenthird-rankedUSC Saturday. Stanford racked up 211 rushing yards, includingtwo touchdowns from Toby Gerhart, in their 42-17 win over San Jose Statelast week.

Stanford opened as a 6.5-point favorite at CRIS and the public is heavilybacking underdog Washington. The Huskies are currently receiving 66% of spreadbets, 83% of moneyline bets and 74% of parlay bets, yet Stanford has grown to an8.5-point favorite. This reverse-line movement has triggered six positive SmartMoney Plays, including one at Phoenix (13-6, +6.49 units), and one Steam Move at5Dimes (32-21, +7.9 units) on Stanford. These are very strong moves, thereforewe’ll give the points and take Stanford in our final game of the week.

Stanford -8

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights’ analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week4.

Games to Watch (6-3)
Wake Forest +1.5
Virginia Tech +3

Stanford -8

It should be another exciting week for NCAA Football. Keep SportsMarketwatch Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.comfor the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investingtools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at Sports Insights