NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 14 2009

by The Team at

Welcome to the 2009-10 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!

Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.

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Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 14

Recapping Week 13

In the first game of our Thanksgiving edition of Marketwatch, Rutgers scored 21 second quarter points in a 34-14 defeat of Louisville, handing us our only loss of the week. Marketwatch rebounded when Auburn got off to a hot start, jumping on Alabama 14-0 early in the first quarter. ‘Bama eventually came back to win their second straight Iron Bowl, but the five-point margin did not beat the 10.5-point spread, giving us a win. Baylor, getting 21 points, played well enough against heavily-favored Texas Tech to lose by only seven, making it a 2-1 week for Marketwatch.

Overall Record = 22-16-1 (57.9%)

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 14 – Games to Watch

West Virginia vs. Rutgers (12/5 – 12 p.m. EST)

Last week, Tyler Bitancurt kicked a game-winning 43-yard field goal as West Virginia won the 2009 edition of the Backyard Brawl over Pittsburgh. Rutgers running back, Mohamed Sanu, ran for a career-high 148 yards and two touchdowns as the Scarlet Knights crushed Big East rival Louisville, 34-14.

West Virginia opened as a 2.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and are currently receiving 59% of spread bets. Even though the Mountaineers are a considerable public favorite, big bets have come down on Rutgers, shrinking the line four points at Pinnacle. A Steam Move was triggered on the Scarlet Knights at BetOnline (+15 units), so we’ll follow this move and the significant reverse-line movement, and grab Rutgers giving one-point at home.

Rutgers -1 (Olympic)

Fresno State vs. Illinois (12/5 – 12:30 p.m. EST)

Place Kicker Kevin Goessling played the role of hero in Fresno State’s last game, connecting on a 35-yard attempt, as time expired, to give the Bulldogs a 30-28 victory over Louisiana Tech. Their opponent, Illinois, was the latest team to face the wrath of the Cincinnati offense, allowing Tony Pike to throw for 399 yards and six touchdowns in a 49-36 loss at Nippert Stadium.

This game opened as a pick at CRIS and public betting has pushed Illinois to a three-point favorite. Fifty-four percent of spread bets have come down on the Fighting Illini, yet SportsInsights’ Betting Systems have found value on Fresno State. A Steam Move on the Bulldogs was triggered at 5Dimes (+23 units), giving us the confidence to go against the public and take the points.

Fresno State +3

Florida Atlantic vs. Florida International  (12/5 – 7 p.m. EST)

In last week’s matchup with Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic (FAU) forced three turnovers in the 29-23 victory over the visiting Hilltoppers. Florida International (FIU) did not play last week, but is still recovering from their game with Florida two weeks ago. As one might expect, that game was all Gators, who completely manhandled the Golden Panthers, 62-3.

FAU opened as a 1.5-point favorite at CRIS and are currently receiving 66% of spread wagers. Although the public is heavily behind FAU, the line has dropped 3.5 points, making FIU a two-point favorite at CRIS. SportsInsights’ Betting Systems lit this game up early and often, triggering two positive Smart Money plays and two positive Steam Moves, including one at 5Dimes (+23 units), on FIU. We’ll follow these strong plays, go against the public and take FIU.

Florida International -1.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights’ analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 14.

Games to Watch (22-16-1)
Rutgers -1 (Olympic)
Fresno State +3
Florida International -1.5

It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at Sports Insights