NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 13 2009

by The Team at

Welcome to the 2009-10 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!

Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.

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Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 13

Recapping Week 12

Kent State opened Week 12 by filling Marketwatch with false hope. The Golden Flashes, getting 11.5 points, held a 1-point lead at halftime before Temple exploded in the third quarter, scoring 24 unanswered points en route to a 47-13 drubbing of Kent State. In our second game, North Texas outgained Army 447-287 in total yards, but Trent Steelman’s 2-yard touchdown run with less than two minutes remaining put Army ahead for good, handing Marketwatch its second loss of the day. Needing a big game from the Bears, California running back Shane Vereen proved to be a true friend of Marketwatch, rushing for 193 yards and three touchdowns in a six-point victory over heavily favored Stanford.

Overall Record = 20-15-1 (57.1%)

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 13 – Games to Watch

Rutgers vs. Louisville (11/27 – 11 a.m. EST)

After hammering #24 South Florida two weeks ago, Rutgers went to Syracuse and got embarrassed by the Orange, a team who was previously winless in the Big East. Louisville also lost to a conference opponent on the road last week, giving up 538 yards of offense in a 34-22 defeat at the hands of South Florida.

Rutgers opened as a 4.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and 85% of spread bets have come down on the Scarlet Knights. Even though Louisville is a significant public underdog, the line has shrunk to -3, suggesting there is significant sharp money backing the Cardinals. Two positive Smart Money Plays, including one at CRIS (+7.69 units), and one positive Steam Move at BetOnline (+11.5 units) have been triggered on Louisville. To kick off our Thanksgiving Edition of Marketwatch, we’ll follow these moves, go against a considerable public favorite and take Louisville, and the points, at home.

Louisville +3

Alabama vs. Auburn (11/27 – 2:30 p.m. EST)

Undefeated Alabama comes into the 74th Iron Bowl as a double-digit favorite and leads the all-time series with a record of 39-33-1. The Crimson Tide lambasted the Tigers last year 36-0, ending a run of six-straight victories for Auburn.

Alabama opened as a 13-point favorite at Olympic and is currently receiving 68% of spread bets, 80% of moneyline bets and 80% of parlay bets. Sharp money jumped all over Auburn early, shrinking the line three points by late Monday afternoon. This drastic reverse-line movement triggered a Smart Money play at Matchbook (+11.02 units) and a Steam Move at 5Dimes (+18.9 units), two of our strongest college football moves this season. We like home underdogs in rivalry games and the strong moves from SportsInsights’ Betting Systems give us the confidence to pull the trigger on the Tigers. The line has moved to -10 at many sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights, but there are still a couple offering the an extra half-point, so grab Auburn at +10.5 while you can.

Auburn +10.5 (Bodog)

Baylor vs. Texas Tech (11/28 – 6:00 p.m. EST)

After losing their last two games by a combined score of 85-17, Baylor will be facing a another high-powered offense when they head to Lubbock this weekend. Their opponent, Texas Tech, went off against Oklahoma last week, hammering the Sooners 41-13.

The Red Raiders opened as a 22.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and are receiving 84% of spread wagers. Even though the public is backing Texas Tech, the line has dropped to -20.5 at many sportsbooks. Two positive Smart Money Plays, including one at Matchbook (+11.02 units), and two positive Steam Moves, with one at BetOnline (+11.5 units), have been triggered on Baylor. The Bears are getting 21 points at a few books, so we’re going ahead and grabbing it before it moves off that key number.

Baylor +21

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights’ analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 13.

Games to Watch (20-15-1)
Louisville +3
Auburn +10.5 (Bodog)
Baylor +21

It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at Sports Insights