NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 12 2009

by The Team at

Welcome to the 2009-10 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!

Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.

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Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 12

Recapping Week 11

Our opening game of last week’s edition of Marketwatch ended in our first push of the season. Brett Swenson kicked a 21-yard field goal with less than two minutes to play, as Michigan State erased an 11-point fourth quarter deficit en route to a 3-point victory over Purdue. In game two, Kansas State had no answer for Missouri wide receiver Danario Alexander, who caught ten passes for 200 yards and three touchdowns in a 38-12 blowout victory for the Tigers, and Marketwatch. In our third and final game, California running back Shane Vareen broke off a 61-yard touchdown run with less than 90 seconds remaining in the game, giving the Bears an 8-point win and covering the 3-point spread for us.

Overall Record = 19-13-1 (59.4%)

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 12 – Games to Watch

Kent State vs. Temple (1 p.m. EST)

Kent State could not get anything going on the ground in their last game, totaling 38 yard rushing in a 28-20 road loss to Akron two weeks ago. Temple was much more successful in their visit to Akron Saturday, scoring 42 unanswered points in a 56-17 shellacking of the Zips.

Temple opened as a 13.5-point favorite at Olympic are currently receiving 79% of spread bets, 98% of moneyline bets and 91% of parlay bets. Although the Owls are the clear-cut public favorite, sharp money has come down on Kent State, shrinking the line to -10.5 at Olympic, while triggering two Smart Money Plays, one each at Sportbet (+6.99 units) and CRIS (+12.05 units), on the Golden Flashes. Two positive Steam Moves have also been triggered on Kent State, so we’ll follow the Smart Money, go against the public and take the Flashes.

Kent State +11.5 (WSEX)

Army vs. North Texas (4 p.m. EST)

After being blown out by Air Force two weeks ago, Army’s Patrick Mealy ran for 136 yards as the Black Knights rebounded to beat VMI 22-17 Saturday. North Texas went to the locker room with a 14-point halftime lead against Florida International last week, only to watch the Golden Panthers score 21 unanswered points over the final two quarters of the game.

This matchup opened as a pick at CRIS and the public has jumped behind Army, who is receiving 65% of spread bets, 82% of moneyline bets and 59% of parlay bets. North Texas is a considerable public underdog, yet the line has moved opposite of the percentages, pushing the Mean Green to a 2.5-point favorite at CRIS. Matchbook (+16.12 units) triggered a Smart Money Play on North Texas, so we’ll once again go against the public, take the home-favorite and give two points.

North Texas -2

California vs. Stanford (7:30 p.m. EST)

As mentioned above in our Week 11 recap, California scored a touchdown late, topping Arizona 24-16. This week the Bears take on Stanford, who has scored 106 points in their last two games, victories over Oregon and USC.

Following last week’s drubbing of USC, Stanford opened as a 6.5-favorite at CRIS and is receiving 78% of all spread bets. With so much action on the home-favorite, the line has increased to -7.5 at most sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights and even -8 at a couple of shops. Three positive Smart Money plays have been triggered on California, including one at CRIS (+12.05 units). A Steam Move was also triggered on the Bears at 5Dimes (+16.9 units), so we’re going to go ahead and grab Cal at +8 while it’s still out there.

California +8

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights’ analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 12.

Games to Watch (19-13-1)
Kent State +11.5 (WSEX)
North Texas -2
California +8

It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at Sports Insights